Examine the poll reports on the candidates in the articles I gave you. You can also check out pollingreport.com.
What sectors in society are Obama & McCain doing well & poorly with? What suggestions do you have to the campaigns for how they could increase their popularity this fall for the general election? (You can discuss one or both for this section.) Be sure to site where your information is from & to back up your projections & advice.
Good luck and enjoy the blog!
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Obama is doing well with three main groups. First, according to an article from MPR, Obama is winning among Minnesota women by 16%. This might be from the recent support he got from Hillary Clinton at the convention. Second, white low-wage workers favor Obama 47% to McCain’s 37% according to an article by the Washington Post. McCain still seems distant to theses voters, which enables Obama to continue to lead among them. Third, Obama is leading dramatically among African Americans and Hispanics according to an article from the Washington Post.
McCain has gained momentum after his vice presidential pick, Sarah Palin, and the Republican National Convention. He now wins among white women overall- 47% to Obama’s 44%- according to an article from the Washington Post on September 8. McCain is also doing well by distancing himself from President Bush as indicated by a September 8 article from Bloomberg.com. Finally, McCain leads among likely voters according to the same Washington Post article, which is an important indicator because even if Obama wins every demographic, if he doesn’t get people to actually go and vote he won’t win.
Obama’s campaign needs to do several things to win the election in November. Obama needs to continue to counter the inaccurate information circulating on the internet. The rumors about his religious background could influence voters in the election so it is important that Obama clarify that he is Christian not Muslim. The MPR article states that 9% of people believe Obama is Muslim. Obama also needs to emphasize that he has specific plans to solve problems. According to MPR, an issue he is facing is his lack of substance behind his words; increasing publicity for his plans would be beneficial in this respect. In answer to his inexperience, again brought up by MPR, the campaign needs to list Biden’s experience and indicate that Obama will gain assistance from his vice-president once in office. From the Washington Post and the Salon article, Obama needs to emphasize the impacts of McCain winning and how his policies are tied to Bush’s policies. Emphasizing the impacts of McCain’s election might get out more voters who otherwise would not vote which could prove key in November. The Salon article emphasizes that Obama needs to gain new voters to win the elections. Finally, according to the Salon article, Obama needs to add more passion in his speeches to show that he has more feelings behind his position and his plans.
McCain also needs to use different techniques to win the election in November. According to the Washington Post, McCain needs to show more empathy with low-wage workers throughout the country. It is important for him to win their vote that is key to winning the election because they live in swing states. To reach out to these voters, McCain also needs to indicate that he will lower gas prices by suspending the gas tax according to the Washington Post article. Another way to reach out to these voters is to bring up the issue of illegal immigration according to the Washington Post article. Because these voters lose wages or jobs with increased illegal immigrants, it is important for McCain to indicate how he will decrease illegal immigration. According to the Salon article, McCain needs to emphasize Obama’s inexperience. This would be an easy campaign tool because McCain has years of Senate experience versus Obama’s four years.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/story/2008/09/08/ST2008090801842.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM13WdlsA.Kw&refer=home
Obama is gaining much of the support from the low-wage working class (2). He has tremendous support in this area from African Americans and Hispanics (2). Obama is viewed as a very empathetic candidate, however, when asked, workers believed neither candidate would make economic decisions greatly impacting them, therefore they are not necessarily attached to supporting one single candidate (2). Obama also gains much of his support from the younger voters due to his age (1). However, Obama is struggling with the white working class as well as older white Americans (5). McCain has support from higher-income households with his proposed tax cuts that would be the largest for them (4). He has gained some support for his suspension of the federal gas tax in order to lower prices from the white working class (2). McCain is also popular among independents (5). Also, with his running mate as Palin, he has gained support among women, 25% of people polled were more likely to vote for him because of that decision (3). McCain struggles with the younger American sector because of his age as well as the majority of the working class (1,2).
In order for Obama to improve his popularity for the general election, I think he should better prove that he is able to run the country. In a poll, Americans were asked if they felt Obama had prepared enough and 44% responded he had while 43% responded that he had not (3). He also was only thought by 24% polled very likely to be a good commander-in-chief (3). Overall this shows that many Americans aren’t very confident in his ability to lead the country. Therefore, Obama’s campaign should focus more on his experiences that qualify him for presidency.
In order for McCain to improve his popularity for the general election, I believe he needs to portray himself as a more empathetic candidate. When polled, 60% of Americans polled felt that Obama was more able to understand their needs and problems (3). McCain needs to better relate with everyday Americans and should gear his campaign toward an understanding of their situations.
1. MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
2. Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
3. http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm
4. http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=411750
5. http://www.salon/news/feature/2008/08/11/obama
Wow, I'm pretty sure I posted my response in the wrong place, so now I'm putting it here. Haha...whoops... Anyway, here's my post:
In this election, it is clear that many constituents are looking for change. Since "Change" is one of Obama's campaign-catchphrases, it shouldn't be surprising that he is garnering the most support with those people in society who need their situation to get better. An example of this is lower-class white workers, who are paid little above minimum wage if not minimum wage, and who have few health care or other types of benefits. Obama is also doing well with African Americans and Latinos, who have typically been Democrats throughout history, but even more may be siding with Obama now because they believe it is time America sees an African American president leading the country. This group of constituents is extremely important because it has been considered by both political opponents as the key to victory in November. He is already leading McCain by ten points in the polls with this group of people. His economic appeals are what have drawn in low-wage workers. So far, Obama's been doing well with women, too, but with McCain's choice as Palin for his VP candidate, that may begin to change. Also, from my perspective, Obama is doing really well with young people. I have spoken with very few kids at school or elsewhere who don't support him, and I think that's because kids seem so unsatisfied with the way things are now. It's our future, and we're worried about it. Nobody wants another administration like Bush's, which has definitely disenchanted some people from voting for McCain.
McCain seems to have had no problem with getting upper-class white Americans to side with him; Republicans are stereotypically viewed as people who are better off on financial terms from time to time because they usually vote to protect their money and to be more independent from the government - I say this because my dad and step mom Republicans. And then the Democratic stereotype is often thought to be made of minority groups and the lower class, who may need to rely on the government more because they don't earn enough money to be independent from the government, or are more concerned with earning rights they do not yet have, and Democrats are oftentimes considered vehicles for changing the way things already are. As I mentioned before, McCain is also beginning to draw women towards his campaign because there are many people in the United States who would like to see a woman in such a high position as vice president, or possibly even president if McCain dies in office. McCain's age is also a soft spot of his campaign, because people are worried about how effective he can be when he takes office at the age of seventy-two. A weakness for Obama is his lack of experience.
And so, my advice for each campaign is this:
It seems like both candidates should focus on trying to sway moderates, not even necessarily moderates of a particular group (I mean like blacks or whites or rich or poor- they shouldn't focus on what divides us). This always seems like the objective of an election, but as a moderate, I can say right now that I definitely haven't been targeted in spite of the fact that I'm not yet old enough to vote. Maybe it's because of that, or maybe it's because of my age that candidates think trying to get me on their side is wasting money, but if I could vote, I would. I think it's such a tragedy when people don't vote- that's the most important right we have as Americans. There are so many countries that have absolutely no say in how their country is run, and even though I personally believe the Electoral College gets in the way of what people really want, our votes matter. Anyway, if both candidates would just tell all the truth with their campaigns rather than throwing dirt and twisting words, I would be so eager to support one of them. And this is the truth: I still haven't found a candidate I really care about. That doesn't mean I wouldn't vote if I could, but I don't think the candidates are making it very easy. They need to tell the truth, and tell it to the moderates - forget all the smearing. That doesn't help anyone.
Source: MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
According to Minnesota Public Radio, Barack Obama is favored by the low wage workers 2 to 1 over John McCain. Also Obama has major support from African Americans and Hispanics because he has been named the more empathetic candidate that shares their values according to the Washington Post. They also noted that Obama appeals to those looking for affordable health insurance. Women voters prefer Obama over McCain by 16 points, says the poll on MPR. However that may have changed now that McCain chose Sarah Palin as his running mate. McCain can win a considerable number of the white workers’ votes according to the Washington Post. This is because he can appeal to them on energy and economic issues. According to Salon, McCain is also popular with independent voters. They also state that he appeals to groups because he has been a maverick for 26 years.
First of all, Obama needs to stop any rumors going on about him and make sure everyone is informed of the truth. According to MPR, 42% of people did not know that Obama is a Christian. He has also been accused of a lack of enthusiasm says Salon. Most importantly, if he wants to gain more votes from wider areas of people, he should start putting more substance behind his promises. He talks about change very often, but he needs to specify how he will change these issues. Another fact that is hurting his campaign is that he does not have nearly as much experience as McCain does. He has only been in the Senate for 4 years provides Salon.
To improve his campaign, McCain needs to gain the votes of minority workers. Also he needs to gain the votes of the low-wage workers. According to MPR, he can do this by planning to secure boarders to stop illegal immigration, because many low-wage workers are worried about losing their jobs to them. Another issue with his campaign is his age, says MPR. Obama has the advantage there because he seems more likely to appeal to younger voters, while they see McCain as an old man. He also needs to relate to the citizens more and get down on their level.
After last week's republican convention, John McCain has erased Barack Obama's national lead and has turned the presidential election to a real contest. Obama has an advantage from the support from African Americans and Hispanics groups. 92% African Americans who polled chose Obama. Obama also has a great amount of support from the lower class wages group, as some of Obama's ideas are closer to what they are looking for such as the economy and health care area. Obama's economic appeals has gotten major support for those who are under the greatest financial stress, in which he leads 19 percentage points. Barack Obama also has majority of the support from the younger generation voters, since he is able to advertise in areas where younger people are in to. Obama does need to make an impression for the white workers, since that his ideas don't attract them. John McCain has wide support especially from the seniors who are over 65. McCain has support from higher-income households with his proposed tax cuts. He has the support from those who are supportive of the war in Iraq. McCain does need to gain more support from the younger voters, as well as other ethnic groups. One significant shift in the poll is among women. Back in August, Obama was leading McCain by 14 points. Now his lead is just four points. 34% of McCain voters say they're excited about McCain's pick for vice president.
For Obama to gain more popularity he needs to show America that he is ready to become the president, he needs to show the people his ability as commander in chief. John McCain needs to distance himself from President Bush. 74% believe McCain would closely follow Bush's programs and policies. He needs to distance his programs and policies from President’s Bush. McCain needs to connect with the people more; he needs to gain the support of the majority of the people in the U.S. who are the working class. McCain also needs to gain the support of the younger voters.
52% believe that Obama would bring change to the country. If it weren't for the bounce that McCain picked Palin, the attention would be on much of the progress Obama has made in the polls.
1)http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26625154/
2)pollreport.com
3)MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
4) Obama leads, Pessimism Reigns Among key Group
McCain now has a lead on Obama, because of increasing support from women (3). After announcing his choice for VP, Sarah Palin, the shift of white female voters has been substantial. Obama who previously had more support from white women with 50 percent to 40 percent, is now behind with McCain leading 53 percent to 41 percent (3). There is also speculation that a fair amount of Clinton supporters will vote Republican now that Palin is in the ticket (4).
Latinos are favoring Obama, in four keys states: California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado(2). However, Hispanic voters in Texas are favoring the Republicans, and they are split in Florida (2). The main deciding factor on who to vote for among Latinos, is the prospect of reforms to immigration laws. Most Hispanics think Obama will do a better job changing current immigration policy.
The black vote is also a strong base for Obama. 92 percent of low-wage African Americans polled said they would support Obama, because he was the candidate most concerned with their problems (1).
Obama also has strong support from low-wage workers by a 2 to 1 ratio (1). This is likely because the Republicans have traditionally supported economic globalization and initiatives such as NAFTA that have shifted unskilled jobs to other countries. Low-wage workers are siding with Obama, because they believe that his stances a similar to their own views and concerns.
In terms of Obama should do to increase his popularity; he should advertise information about his running mate. Looking at a magazine rack, Palin's picture is everywhere. News and information about Palin has spread quickly, while Biden is being over looked for what is deemed a more interesting VP choice. Positive information about the democratic running mate should be publicized. His experience and credentials should be information readily accessible to voters. Obama should also note his ability to emphasize with the experiences of lower and middle class voters. His support among low-wage workers is far higher than McCain's because they believe that Obama can emphasize with them and understand their problems. Obama should also address any misinformations that has been circulating about him. Many people do not know that he is Christian, and several believe his is Muslim (1).
McCain can improve his campaign by appealing to independent voters. People have questioned whether he is conservative enough to follow the agenda of the Republican party, but other have praised him for being an individual not strictly aligned with his party. McCain should also defend Palin against attacks from the media about scandal and inexperience. While his VP choice has helped his campaign, he should also address the damage done to his campaign. McCain also should appeal to specific groups of people and how he can help these groups, something the democrats have been doing a better job of.
(1)http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/08/03/ST2008080302019.html
(2)http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?sectionName=&id=9a842dc8-4547-4d5e-8c1f-447d2564e151&&Headline=Obama+gets+Hispanic+support%3a+Poll&strParent=strParentID
(3)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20080910.CAMPAIGNWOMEN10/TPStory/International
(4)http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/05/usnews/whispers/main4420341.shtml
Both Obama and McCain are doing well with different sectors of the society. Obama is doing much better than McCain with the low income workers, primarily because of his plans to end tax cuts for the wealthy and set up programs for the lower wage workers. Right now he holds a firm 2-1 advantage over McCain, and doesn’t seem like he will lose that advantage. He appeals to the African Americans and the Hispanics that make up that group, but he also leads McCain among the white workers as well. Also, Obama seems to appeal to the younger Americans, because they also have lower incomes and he can help them with his programs to get started. He seems to have the upper hand in the lower income, minority workers. His plans to pull out of Iraq is appealing to many of the people of America, especially the undecided, and getting them to vote for him.
McCain is on the opposite side of Obama. He has most of his appeal in the upper class, older age Americans, along with big business. His saying that he will make tax cuts equal for all Americans appeals to big business, because they wouldn’t lose as much money as they would under Obama’s plan. The same idea appeals to the wealthier, upper class Americans, whom would lose a lot of money paying for all of Obama’s programs. Also, McCain’s anti-Republican ideas and his history of going with what he thinks and not following party lines is important to appealing to the moderates. Also, his appointment of Sarah Palin showed him gaining an advantage over Obama in the women voters, now holding a 47 percent to 44 percent lead. At the end of August, Obama was leading McCain 48 percent to 38 percent overall based on a telephone poll, but they say that it is still up for grabs.
Obama can’t do much else to improve his campaign, but he can still do some things. One thing that he can do is continue to hold his control over the minority and low income workers by continuing to advertise his plans to changing the economy and providing help for those who need it. He also must not back down on appealing to the young people, and getting them out to vote. That could be the difference in the election, and he must keep reminding the younger Americans to go out and vote for him. He also must get out who he is, and clear up all the rumors about him. 2 percent of people polled thought he was Muslim, and 47 percent didn’t know he was a Christian. Also, he must show people that he will lead the country right, and how he has experience to solve the many problems our country is facing. But as of now, Obama is leading and seems to be doing a great job campaigning.
McCain will do well with big business no matter what, as long as he keeps his policy on tax cuts set, but what he needs to do is appeal to the base majority of Republicans of America, because he himself is a much more moderate of a candidate. I think that selecting Palin as VP candidate was a strong move to appeal to that group, but he must continue to make strides in that area, because he needs those votes to win. The hard part is that he must also appeal to the moderates who are undecided, because without those votes he will fail. He should advertise his moderate ideas to the moderates, and have Palin appeal to the conservatives, that way he can win both. Finally, he should advertise himself as a strong leader, and a healthy person (many people think he might die in office), in order to gain the support of the undecided voters. The older people and the businesses will vote for him , but the rest are what will decide whether he will make up ground and win.
Sources:
1)MPR poll:Obama leads, but contest is fluid
2)www.washingtonpost.com
3)www.comcast.net
4)www.salon.com/news
With the nomination of Nancy Palin the popularity gap between Obama and McCain is closing. Surprisingly, Obama still has the women’s vote in the midst of the Nancy’s appointment. Obama, leading by eight points last week, is now even with McCain at 42 percent(1). (2)Another source claims that 80 say they will definitely vote for McCain while 78 say they are leaning towards Obama. At this point as I am reading through election polls and a theme that is shown is that the race is close one. In a poll by the Washington Post, the most important issues for registered voters are the economy, jobs. gas, Iraq, and health care. In this same poll it is shown that 36 percent consider themselves Democratic, and 28 percent associate with the GOP. As far as campaigning goes, Obama is doing well in raising money. (3) Barack has raised close to 400,000,000 dollars while John has only raised 170,000. Money is not the only thing that matters in a campaign, but it has become increasingly important. On the issue of gaining the young vote, or the “adult” vote it’s split. Obama has gained the support of young people, including the unmarried. Making sure younger people vote is very important to Obama’s campaign. McCain still holds on to the majority of older married voters. Another important success that Obama’s campaign made was the decision to send text messages to voters. (4)The messages they sent out read, “Obama News: Get info on how to vote at VoteforChange.com. You can get registered, apply to vote absentee or find your polling location. Fwd msg to 5 friends!" In this day in age, the idea to send a text message is brilliant. Once you check the website he provided, you can register to vote within minutes. Not to rip on the age difference but I can only imagine John McCain sending a text message. For Obama’s campaign to gain popularity he needs to have a better central message. Some feel his message right now reads (5) “this great man will unify a divided America around himself.” Often Obama is portrayed as a great man, and made fun of by Republicans as the, “Messiah.” His campaign can be seen as shaky or unstable. He needs to present a lasting framework for what he will become. The buzz he has created is reflected in his numbers. These numbers will not last without more structure in his campaign. Another thing that Obama could work on would be appearing “average.” Presidents in the past have won over voters by showing them similarities in themselves. Obama appears as someone different, and not necessarily someone able to relate to the average citizen. Voters at the booth who are divided when voting for Obama or McCain may choose the candidate whom they relate better with. So stop seeming so god-like Obama!
1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/09/obama_on_his_heels.html
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_090808.html
3. http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.php
4. http://briefingroom.thehill.com/2008/09/10/obama-camp-seeks-to-turn-out-voters-via-text-message/
5. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/07/on_obamas_message.html
According to an article on washington post.com, Obama is leading among the low-wage workers. These people want to see our economy fixed and our healthcare system improved, which are causing them to lead towards Obama instead of McCain. They find Obama as the more empathetic candidate that can relate to them while sharing many of their values. He also has the majority of African Americans and Hispanics. Many people find him to be “The Nice Guy”, which is an attribute many look for while choosing whom to vote for. Obama’s main weakness is the argument that he is not experienced enough. To gain more support, he must lay out all of the reasons and experiences he has that will make him a good fit for the presidency. He could also gain more support from the businesses. He should reach out to the corporate leaders and articulate to them how his policies will get businesses back on track, therefore hopefully pulling the country out of recession. Everyone wants the country to be back on its feet economically, so the candidate with the most detailed and effective plan for the economy will see much more support.
McCain has been doing well with the Conservatives and the war supporters. He also said that he would suspend the federal gas tax and drop prices, which is something that 2/3 of the working class wants. He could steal some support from Obama if he continues to pitch that idea. According to Mark Murray, McCain’s appeal with the independent voters is helping him. People tend to find him more experienced familiar with politics. I think that choosing Palin as a running mate will help him end up with more support from women and the socially conservative. I believe there are a few key things that McCain should do to gain more support. The first is that he needs to distance himself from Bush. He should give a speech listing specific things Bush did wrong and what he would do differently. I think a main setback that he has is his affiliation to the Republican party and the fact that it is very unlikely for Republicans to win the election three terms in a row. He should also try to gain appeal with the younger voters and stress what issues he can help them with. He can expand social service projects and raise minimum wage in hopes to gain support from the minority workers.
*MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
*Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
*Presidential race tightens in Minnesota
Both candidates are reaching out to specific sectors in society, allowing them to build a track record of which particular groups support them and which don’t. Barack Obama has proved to be favorable among minorities, specifically African Americans and Hispanics. This approval is greatly aided by the fact that he is part African American. He is also very popular among young people and women because he himself is young and is perceived as containing “fresh” ideas. These are also the groups he is reaching out to, by appearing on MTV and representing himself as the “new” face of America.
Although the Washington Post says that Obama has a small edge on low-wage workers, he is still struggling to attract this group. A majority of these people greatly favored Hillary Clinton because she specifically targeted their concerns, making it difficult for this group to transfer their vote . It has also been reported that Obama is doing better with independents than many of his democratic predecessors, but is still struggling to steal their votes from McCain.
As for McCain, he is unsurprisingly on the opposite end of the spectrum. He is thriving with the independents, partly because of his Maverick appeal and the large focus he has put on them recently. The Washington Post also reported that McCain is doing slightly better than Obama with white working class Americans who have advanced over the past years. Again, opposite Obama, McCain is struggling with minority workers, women, and youth. This has to do with his age and the fact that he is not as focused on them as his competitor.
In order for Obama to improve his campaign he has to outshine his lack of experience and prove that he is able to protect America and handle a dangerous world. Obama has also been criticized for his inability to show emotion. He needs to stop playing it so safe because it is making his campaign appear superficial. He comes off as stuffy and many Americans are unable to connect with him because they feel they have not seen his personality. Mark Murray, the deputy political director for NBC News, also advised Obama to really shine in the upcoming debates. That is the stage where he will have to prove that he is deserving of becoming the next president.
One of McCain’s biggest obstacles is his age, so it will be necessary for him to prove he is still an advocate for change. Although McCain should continue with his Maverick persona, he also has to make sure his campaign differs from that of Bush. He has to separate himself from the problems the government faced while he was in office. Another useful piece of advice from Murray for McCain is to make the presidential race all about Obama, emphasizing his lack of experience and proving he is not ready to lead.
Sources:
1. Article: “MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid”.
2. Article: “Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group”.
3. Article/ Interview: “Why isn’t Obama crushing McCain?”
According to NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll Obama has a narrow lead of McCain with it being 47 to 46 percent. McCain picking Sarah Palin definetly helped his popularity factor especially with women ages 18 to 49 where just in August McCain was behind Obama by 20 points he is now leading by 3.
McCain's main focus for his campaign should be distancing himself from Bush because many still believe his policies will be closely aligned with the President's. He should continue to push the fact that Palin is an everyday person and that she can relate to us. The South are in love with her for the most part so he needs to try and keep their favor while also targeting smaller population states that would enjoy having a vice-president come from a small state like their own and be able to relate.
Obama needs to be careful what he says he's losing the women's vote so he needs to promote that Hilary Clinton is on his side and remind the people that she's supporting him. Many of her supporters are refusing to support him because they believe it should be Clinton. Also Obama needs to avoid saying anything that could be taken as a smear campaign against Palin otherwise he'll lose alot more of the female vote.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7608653.stm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26625154/
The race for the presidency this is gut-wrenchingly tight; both John McCain and Barack Obama have both proved to be extremely intelligent competitors. John McCain, the Republican candidate is faring surprisingly well despite our country’s dissatisfaction with the current Republican president. He is garnering his support from the independents (4), those who support the war in Iraq, and those generally better-off financially. McCain also will be receiving the votes of those who still tender racial discriminations. A poll in Minnesota asking whether or not race would be a factor in the election for people they knew showed that 13 percent felt it would (1).
Senator Barack Obama draws his support from a different set of people. In August, a survey reflected that 92 percent of African Americans felt that Obama showed to be more concerned with their problems (2). Obama also draws much support from the Hispanic community. Because of his focus on economic and energy issues (lowing the rising gasoline prices) as well as his health insurance plans, Obama holds a 2-1 edge over McCain for the votes of low wage workers (2). Obama also holds a large percentage of the younger voters’ support (4).
Because the election is so close, both campaigns need to expand their support bases. Both should focus on the women’s vote. In August, women in Minnesota were much more likely to vote for Obama, but with the addition of Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket their vote might swing the other way. Speaking in terms of his specific campaign, McCain should focus on downplaying his age as a factor in his presidency, highlight the differences between him and current President George Bush, and work on appealing to the lower-class voters. By attempting to brand Obama as an elitist, McCain has already shown his desire to do this, but to truly earn their vote he needs to start focusing on plans he has in his platform which benefit them.
1. MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
2. WashingtonPost.com Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
4. Salon.com Why Isn’t Obama Crushing McCain?
Back in August, it was clear to everyone in America that Obama was in the lead when it came to the presidential race; having an advantage over McCain in most groups that were surveyed. However, since the announcement of Sarah Palin as John McCain’s running mate, things have changed (4). Both Obama and McCain remain in a tight race, but currently McCain is clearly ahead. Obama still has fans amongst three main groups; the younger voters, minorities, and low-income workers. Voters age 18-25 hugely support Obama over McCain because of his fresh ideas and probably because he is younger and therefore more relatable (4). Minority workers are choosing Obama because they feel he is the candidate most concerned with their problems (2). 92% of African American workers chose Obama, along with 40% of Hispanics (2). Another group who was favoring Obama at the polls are low-income workers (2). This group of people is especially feeling the strain of the current economy, with all the rising gas prices and food costs. They feel that Obama, with his fresh ideas aimed at creating new “green-collar” jobs and his effort to make America more oil-independent, has their best interest at heart (3). They are also looking for more affordable health care, a key platform in Obama’s campaign (2). McCain has captured the votes of the older community, those 50 and older, as well as those with some form of college education (not including those with post-graduate degrees) (4). When John McCain declared Sarah Palin as his running mate, he made a very good decision. This has boosted his popularity amongst women voters, those concerned with gun control (4). Voters feel that McCain has more experience and therefore will be better able to handle the various titles that come with being the American President (4).
Both candidates are waging a very well fought war for the presidency, but there are some areas in which they both could improve. Obama’s main concern should be appealing to the older voters; those who tend to actually show up at the polls. I applaud him for engaging the 18-25 year olds, those who are ultimately the future of our nation, but if he wants to win, he’ll need votes. In order to get votes, his supporters have to show up at the polls (unfortunately the 18-25 year old set stereotypically does not do this). To take the people in the 50 and older group who are currently supporting McCain, Obama needs to find a way to show the country that he will be a capable leader, if elected. People trust him to bring fresh ideas and usher in waves of change, but people also need to trust him to be a capable leader. He has no military background (a HUGE factor, considering we’re currently in a war), and many less years of political experience than McCain. McCain on the other hand, needs to figure out how to get the votes of minorities from Obama. This will be difficult, especially since minorities feel they can identify with Obama because he is not white. However, if McCain can devise a strategy to pull in the minority voters, especially those currently affected by the low economy, he will win for sure.
(1)MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
(2)washingonpost.com: Obama leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
(3)http://www.barackobama.com/
(4)http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
Polls show that Obama is doing very well with women voters as well as with working class voters (1)(2). McCain, on the other hand, leads the white vote, as well as older voters (4). Incidentally, McCain is also shown to be very popular with voters who attend church most frequently and leads by 43 points in this category.
In order for Obama to remain successful, he must keep a balance. On one hand, he must highlight his experience in political office, and on the other he has to keep the image that he is a different kind of politics than the establishment in Washington. One voter in Minnesota admitted that Obama has less experience than McCain, but would still vote for him because she believes he will bring fresh ideas to the table (1). By keeping the idea of these fresh ideas alive, Obama will be able to separate himself more readily from the last eight years, thus appealing to those frustrated by the Bush administration and its policies.
McCain needs to connect with lower income workers. On a national level, Obama has been shown to lead by 10 points at least; this lead being largely attributed to being viewed as the more empathetic candidate (2). More specifically, McCain needs to reach out to minority workers. Polls show that over 90% of minority workers view Obama as more sympathetic to their problems. By convincing these workers that he is just as concerned, if not more concerned, than Obama, McCain could potentially pick up some major ground in the polls. On a more nitpicky level, McCain needs to avoid the boomerang effect of celebrity in politics. Part of McCain’s strategy is to portray Obama as nothing more than a celebrity who won’t have the experience to lead. The choice of Palin as a running mate has been quite popular, and the McCain campaign has got to make sure they don’t raise her up to the level of “celebrity” to avoid being hypocritical (3). I don’t believe that is the biggest issue facing the campaign, simply that it could get him some bad press.
1)MPR poll:Obama leads, but contest is fluid
2)www.washingtonpost.com
3)http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/08/biden.palin/index.html?iref=newssearch
4)www.gallup.com
It seems as though the presidential race is going to be neck and neck all the way up until election time. The impact Sarah Palin made at the Republican Convention has further tightened the race between McCain and Obama, giving McCain a reformer's flair and winning the Republicans the support of women (Star Tribune). McCain is doing surprisingly well and has been successful at showing that he will not be a repeat of the most recent Republican years in Washington. McCain has won the support of many independents who view he and Palin as "tough" candidates (Star Tribune.) He has also won the support of white women due to the impact that Palin has had thus far as a fresh reformer (Star Tribune.) This is probably because Palin is the first woman to hold the position of a possible vice-president in a major political party, and it may appear to women that she will offer more power and status to females. McCain is leading among older voters, typcially over the age of 65 (New York Times). This could be because he in fact is a much older candidate than Obama, and would have more in common with the older voters, as well as similiar life experiences and more political experience as well.
McCain has been struggling to win his case among workers that earn less than $27,000 a year (Washington Post). This is because Obama's more liberal campaign has healthcare and anti-poverty incentives that appeal to the lower classes and make him seem more empathetic (Washiington Post). McCain also is doing poorly at gaining support of minorities. 92% of polled African Americans said they would consider voting for Obama, while none said they would for McCain (Washington Post).
While Obama seemed to have a lead over McCain at first, the race has become much closer now that Palin is on the scene. Her freshness and newness has exceeded that of Obama (Star Tribune). Both candidates are fighting for support among white workers who think neither the election of McCain nor Obama will affect them. In spite of this, McCain is leading among workers who had advanced in their conditions in the past 7 years (Washington Post.) However, this only makes up 17% of white workers. Obama actually has a 2 to 1 lead over McCain with low wage workers (Washington Post). Obama also holds the advantage of support from African Americans, Hispanics, and younger voters (salon.com). This is probably due to the fact that he is African American, and would know what it is like being a minority in America. Having an African American president would be a huge sucess and a new and exciting step for minorities. Although Obama has some support from white workers, he does not have nearly enough (salon.com). In addition, his weaknesses include the areas of older whites and white women due to the age of McCain and the appeal of Palin (salon.com).
As advice to McCain, I would suggest that he continue to display he and Palin's track record of being reformers who will take on the Washington that has been established. He has lost appeal by seeming too much like Bush, but if he keeps showing the ways he and Palin have spoken against Republicans in Congress for the benefit of the people, he could lose that reputation. He should also try to appeal to white workers, who feel like neither candidate's campaign will help their financial situations.
One suggestion I have for Obama is that he should stick to his original campaign and ignore the support Palin has made as a reformer. I think he should, instead of battling her, leave her off to the side and focus solely on McCain once again so that he doesn't seem like he is bashing women, and at the same time take attention away from her and put himself into the limelight as the reformer Americans need. However, if he does choose to combat Palin a bit, he should talk about how even though Palin is a woman, some of her decisions (like her opposition to abortion) could actually be harmful to women's rights. He should also show more emotion so that people know he actually does have strong beliefs and ideas, and that it is not all for show.
All in all, this is and will continue to be a very intense and exciting election, and I am excited to see what the candidates will do to make gains in the near future.
Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns
Among Key Group. washingtonpost.com
Why Isn't Obama Crushing McCain? salon.com
The Palin Effect. Star Tribune Sept. 10, 2008
McCain Takes a Place From Clinton's Playbook. Newyorktimes.com. August 3, 2008
The recent polls of the 2008 presidential election, mainly between Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and Senator John McCain of Arizona, show that both candidates are in a deadlock with 45% and 46% of the vote respectively with a 3.3% margin of error. This leap by McCain is due largely in part by his nomination of Sarah Palin as his vice president. It is too early to tell whether his choice was worth the risk or not because the public is getting to know her and closely scrutinizing her past and every move. The polls also show that more voters are able to identify with Sen. Obama and were confident of his ability to be the president of the United States of America. 34% of voters are enthusiastic about the McCain Palin ticket now that Palin has been nominated. 55% of Obama voters are excited about the democratic side of the election.
Obama has gained more support from former Clinton supporters although some of them are still bitter from defeat and refuse to vote for Obama, upset that he beat Clinton in the primaries and that he did not name her as his vice president nomination. According to the article source 1, the nomination of Sarah Palin was, in part, designed to win over some of the Clinton supporters. The only problem is that although some supporters may identify with Palin on gender basis, they can’t identify with her on many issues such as anti-abortion. Palin does help the Republican party appeal to more younger voters who previously tended to vote Democratic.
McCain is doing better in the south with a poll saying 6 out of 10 southern states support McCain. Obama is not doing so well in the south and has given up TV ads in Georgia. Also, Sen. Biden was chosen as VP to help convince the blue collar workers to vote for Obama, but polls show that Gov. Palin’s had a better image with blue collar workers. Still, Obama holds an advantage over McCain with low-wage workers.
The campaigns are likely to get much dirtier as both sides will try to use anything to gain leverage. It will be interesting to see how they respond to each other’s issues and attacks. In a poll from article 1, 40% of polled said they would like to have dinner with Obama, 33% said they would like to have dinner with Sen. Palin, 15% with McCain, and 7% with Biden. This shows how the public might see the image of the candidates with nothing to do with politics. The results show that of course the younger candidates appeal to the public. This does not mean they are a better candidate though.
McCain will need to work on his public image to show the people that he is not just a frail old man, but a weathered veteran of politics that is ready and capable of taking over as the President. His nomination of Gov. Palin helps supporters bring more enthusiasm and excitement to his side.
Obama should try to show that he has experience to lead the country and take on the responsibilities involved with presidency. His choice of Sen. Biden helps his lack of experience because Biden has been around politics for many years and the public see him as reliable and consistent.
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB122099348086116259.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox
Washingtonpost.com
http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/08/20/prezpoll/
Some say that one of the greatest strengths of the American political system is the constant communication that takes place between the government and its constituents. This is especially evident in the presidential election, as the national poll numbers are shifting daily in response to conventions, speeches, advertisements, and slip-ups. In the past few weeks, we have been bombarded by campaign events and we as a people have fueled the conversation by offering nonstop feedback in the form of protests, donations, and poll opinions. Statistical analysts look at this data to see not only the general results, but also the breakdowns of support among the sectors.
People vote for the candidate who they feel is best able to campaign for their interests and share their values. The Democrats and Republicans have always had traditional followings, and this remains true in this election. For example, Obama has retained his overwhelming support from the African Americans and Hispanics. While these two minorities have always been more Democratic, this election is unique because they also share the minority characteristic with the candidate. As a minority, I believe that it is naïve for anyone to say that race does not play a role in our thoughts. While I am a firm believer that everyone has equal opportunity, I definitely think that other Asian-born Americans can better understand any my thoughts because many of them have had similar experiences. Thus, I feel as though the support for Obama among African-Americans may almost be like show of solidarity and a greater trust in him to empathize with them and keep their interests at heart. Also, the Democrats have traditionally held support with the working class because a central part of their platform includes greater government intervention to promote equality. This also showed in recent polls as Obama leads McCain by 10 percentage points. Obama also has much support among the younger generation. His comparative youth and campaign for change has struck a chord with the young constituents, and he has become somewhat of a celebrity. He also has the support of many Hollywood celebrities and music stars; this may be an important campaign advantage because it is better able to communicate to the younger voters. I’m reminded of the random line in a Three 6 Mafia song where they say, “Like Barack Obama said, it’s time for a change.” While there’s not much substance in that, it does get his name and motto out again.
In several ways, this is considered Obama’s election to lose. Therefore, McCain has much work to do to retain his traditional support and gain additional support. The Republican party has always had the support of the upper class. As successful capitalists, the wealthier people are in favor of less government intervention. The Republican party also has the precedent of lowering taxes for them under the theory that the money can be circulated back into the economy by them. Recently, following the nomination of Sarah Palin as VP and the RNC, McCain has been gaining in the national polls and even shows a slight lead in a few. This improvement has been traced directly to Sarah Palin’s nomination as McCain has garnered more support from women. Prior to this, the gender gap was in Obama’s favor, as he held a 16 point advantage over McCain with women. McCain and Palin have managed to unify their party and slightly diversify it. The Democrats have not completely unified yet as Obama still has not managed to win the support from many of Hillary Clinton’s staunch supporters. She also hasn’t attacked Palin yet, and it seems as though she may not at all. This all contributes to the possibility that Palin will lead women through to shatter the glass ceiling. McCain has also been gaining support from the socially conservative; this may also be a result of Palin’s nomination. She has the track record of conservatism, and her own life story regarding her fifth child, born with Downs syndrome, adds weight to this. The Maverick McCain is also gaining support from independent voters, who often are an important group to court. According to a recent Gallup poll, there was a 12% increase in support for McCain among independents following the national convention.
MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26646387/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/world/2008/0910/1220919678213.html
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110137/McCain-Now-Winning-Majority-Independents.aspx
http://themoderatevoice.com/politics/polls/approval-ratings/22541/polls-mccain-palin-winning-strong-support-from-indepedent-and-women-voters/
The 2008 Presidential Election is currently a highly contested race between the two candidates, Barack Obama and John McCain. I believe that both men, while having support from their core supporters, face the daunting task of appealing to two particular sectors of society. The white workers and voters who identify themselves as independent compromise these two groups in my opinion.
As I said earlier both candidates have a core group of support already. Obama is largely supported by two traditional democratic strongholds: African Americans and Hispanics (1), and the younger voter (2). While Obama leads by 10 percentage points over McCain among white workers, and is considered the more empathetic candidate (1), he still has a long ways to go. According to the Washington Post, 1 out of 6 white workers remain uncommitted to either candidate (1). Tom Edsall makes an interesting point when he points out that a lingering Hillary effect may be hurting Obama (2). Since she often appealed specifically to those working voters, he has not yet established a strong connection with them. Obama is making an effort to attract voters though. For example, affordable health care is of key importance to white working class voters, and Obama is pushing this aspect of his campaign (1). In respect to gaining the independents vote, I agree with Murray that, “Obama is going to have to be successful in convincing independent swing voters that he does have these national-security, and foreign-policy credentials(2)”. I would offer Obama a few pieces of advice. First, he must continue to address the economic concerns of the white worker. Answering questions about raising gas prices and immigration could gain some votes. Secondly, he needs to continue his effort to “shore up his weaknesses” (2) as well as continue to become more well known as a candidate.
In regards to the sectors of society John McCain is finding success in, I agree with Murray. He notes, “A lot of McCain’s appeal and the fact that he’s doing well in the anti-Republican environment, really speaks to his appeal with independents and his maverick status. McCain is considered to be better known, given his years of political experience. Independents and centrist Democrats, in my opinion, will prove to be a vote that McCain needs. Along with them, he will need more support from white workers. Voters’ opinions of politics are being affected by rising prices, insecure finances, and lack of benefits (1). McCain adviser Charlie Black notes the significance of these voters by saying that the campaign still plans to target them and appeal to the issues of the economy and energy (1). McCain is attempting to respond to these voters by supporting things such as the suspension of the federal gas tax (1). The Washington Post rightly claims that McCain’s biggest challenge is minority workers (1). In a poll conducted 92% of African Americans chose Obama as the candidate more concerned with their problems. None responded saying McCain was more concerned (1). In light of this poll, I would highly recommend to McCain that he make more of an appeal to minority workers. Although he won’t be counting on the African American or Hispanic vote to win, individual votes will help him, although perhaps in a minor manner. In addition I would advise that the continued emphasis on energy and the economy will appeal to workers as well. Finally, I believe, as does Ginsberg, that McCain needs to stay on message consistently to gain the support of those crucial independent voters (2).
1. Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group. Michael D. Shear and Jon Cohen. Washingtonpost.com
2. Salon.com podcast featuring Schaller, Edsall, Ginsberg, and Murray.
Obama is doing well in a few main areas, one being among low-waged workers. The reason why Obama is hitting it off with this particular group of people is because this group is really looking for a change in our economy. This group also is looking for a new healthcare system, or new options to be available for them, and Obama promises to provide that. Obama is also popular among the minorities in America such as African Americans and Hispanics. African Americans and Hispanics see him as a man with “new and fresh” ideas for the country. They see Obama as the face of change. Obama also has proved to be more in with the young voters.
McCain currently is doing well with the independents. Also, picking Mary Palin as a running mate for VP was bold, and many say wise political career move. Due to this, he has gained popularity and attracted much attention to his campaign. McCain gained in edge September 8th appealing to women 47% to 44% percent of appeal to Obama. McCain is also leading with the white vote, and with the vote of people who attend church.
To break free from this tight-knit race both candidates need to broaden their campaign, reach out for a new group, or take a turn and focus on something new. McCain and Palin should stick to their idea that they together are reformers, because that’s what people want to hear; people want and are expecting a change in our government. Overall however, I think McCain needs to pull some tricks out of the bag, spice it up, or try new strategies to broaden his appeal. Obama on the other hand needs to stick to the true issues at hand and not on slanderous comments towards Palin, or women in general. I watched a speech he gave recently and he was referring to Palin as a “lipstick wearing pig”. I think this is going to turn people away before it draws people in.
Barack Obama has the support of African-Americans and Hispanics, low-wage white working class families, and he runs neck and neck with McCain for the backing of women (3). Polls show that McCain has the support of more senior citizens, white protestant men, and is taking over the white women’s vote through his choice for vice president. McCain is also reaching out to independent voters, this group is important in races that run so close such as the current campaign (2). Obama is loosing the women’s vote because of Sarah Palin. Not only because McCain chose her as his vice president but also because Obama has publicly attacked her after stating that his campaign would stay focused on McCain and leave Palin alone. The Republican National Convention catapulted McCain into newly found support by groups that were either on the edge or backing Hilary Clinton in the preliminaries (2). Obama is also struggling to gain the support of church goers. The controversy over his religion has hurt his campaign, especially with the power of the media.
According to a Washington Post-ABC poll, Obama is more popular among registered voters with 47% opposed to McCain’s 46%. They are running so close and the deciding vote seems to be going to women. Before the conventions, Obama had an 8 point lead in regards to women’s support, McCain now leads by 12 points. In order to strengthen his campaign, Obama has to emphasize Biden’s strengths as a leader. Obama is criticized for his lack of experience in foreign affairs and the political arena. However in another Washington Post survey 66% of people polled said Biden would have what it takes to run the country if need as opposed to Palin’s 42% (2). Obama must also provide a more solid foundation for his plans of change. His “lack” of experience that is so heavily criticized by politicians and the public is a leading factor in why he will provide a fresh edge to Washington (1). McCain’s weakest point is that he supports the war, he thinks like Bush. He is old and has played the political game for to long, unlike Obama he has nothing new to lay on the table.
1- MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
2- Washington Post- McCain closes the Gap With Obama
3- Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Groups
Obama and McCain are both doing well with some groups, but struggling with others. But of course that is how all presidential elections are. According to the MPR poll, Obama was leading our wonderful state of Minnesota 48% to 38% of the voters called for the poll. It was also said that McCain is still within range and if he chooses Tim Pawlenty as his running mate, he has a decent shot at winning Minnesota. We all know that a republican candidate has not won Minnesota in over 30 years, and we also all know now that McCain did not pick Tim Pawlenty as his running mate… What a shame.
Currently Obama is doing better than McCain by 16% with the women’s votes according to the MPR poll. He is also up on McCain by a 2 to 1 ratio with the low-wage workers according to washingtonpost.com. Much of that support is coming from African American and Hispanic workers, says washingtonpost.com. According to the MPR poll, Obama is also gaining much support from young voters because of his age.
However, Obama is struggling with white voters according to salon.com, and isn’t doing so hot with big-business voters, but that is expected. Also according to washingpost.com, McCain has an advantage with the older citiztens of America.
McCain is doing well with independent voters says salon.com, he is also doing well with higher-income households according to taxpolicycenter.com, and will always have the big business’s votes. With McCain’s appointment of Palin, he also may have the chance to steal back some of the women’s votes.
McCain is struggling with white workers and minority workers in the polls right now according to washingtonpost.com. However, he can possibly gain more white workers votes by appealing to the more about energy and economic issues. He is also struggling with young voters because of Obama’s age says the MPR poll.
1. www.washingtonpost.com
2. MPR Poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
3. www.salon.com
4. http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=411750
The 2008 presidential election race between Obama and McCain is extremely tight. As of the week of August 21, 2008 in a survey by MPR Obama was supported by 48% of surveyors and McCain was supported by 38% in Minnesota. However, Larry Jacobs said “this race is very much up in the air and up for play; this is not a poll saying Obama has a lock on Minnesota, far from it.” Other polls showed Obama leading over McCain between 2 and 4 percentage points. (1) Obama is doing well among women in Minnesota; a poll showed that women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points. Minority workers is a struggle for McCain, but a success for Obama. Hispanics and African Americans have also showed to prefer Obama over McCain because he is the more empathetic candidate. (2) Obama also leads over white workers under stress by 19 percentage points because they believe he has the best economic plans for them. However McCain has a lead on low wage white workers that have said they have advanced in the last seven years. The battle for low wage workers will go straight up until the election, because one in six white workers polled said they remain uncommitted to a candidate – but currently Obama has a 10 percent lead over McCain with the workers (47% to 37% respectively.) If McCain continues pitching a suspension for the federal gas tax, it may win him more votes. Two thirds of white workers surveyed said gas prices were a top priority, and one voter said he will vote for who ever can bring the price down. (2)
According to the PollingReport.com, Obama and McCain have decent leads in different categories. When polled, Obama leads in better economics at 47%, social issues at 48%, Energy at 44%. McCain leads in trust of Iraq war at 51%, 56% at US Campaign against terrorism, 51% at international affairs, and at 54% for best to deal with a crisis. However, McCain and Obama are basically the same for taxes. (3) I think Obama should target his campaign more at international affairs, and a more concrete plan for Iraq to get more votes. McCain needs to focus more on social issues and minorities.
(1)MPR poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
(2)Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group – Washingtonpost.com
(3)Pollingreport.com
Polls demonstrate that Barack Obama is doing well with low wage workers, the youth, and minorities. According to an article by the Washington Post, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 37 percent among 18 to 64-year old workers who earn less than $27,000 per year (1). Representing nearly 25 percent of United States adults, low wage workers have been targeted by both campaigns (1). The Washington Post reported that this was because to the low wage workers, Obama seems to share similar values (1). One of Obama’s central plans is the creation of a new national health insurance program; 70 percent of workers surveyed believed that a primary focus of the government should be helping people find affordable health insurance (1). Among minority voters, a recent poll by theWashingtonPost.com found that 92 percent of African American voters chose Obama as the candidate who can best empathize with their problems. A recent Gallup poll showed that 60 percent of 18 to 25-year-olds supported Obama (2). To increase his popularity, Obama should first spend time clarifying that he is a practicing Christian; an MPR poll showed that 9 percent of 763 voters surveyed believe Obama is Muslim and 42 percent were unaware that he is a practicing Christian (3). Obama should also find a delicate balance between highlighting his experience in political office and his ability to bring fresh and new ideas to the presidency. Obama should also be cautious when commenting on Palin, simply because McCain’s campaign is quick to criticize any potentially sexist comment directed towards her.
On the other hand, John McCain draws much of his support from elderly voters as well as from white churchgoers. One Gallup poll showed McCain leading by 8 points in the 65-years-old and older category (2). Another Gallup poll had McCain leading 68 percent to 25 percent among people who attend church weekly (4). McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin has undoubtedly changed his appeal among women and among conservatives who were at first wary of McCain’s so-called ‘Maverick’ status. Among low income workers McCain trails by 10 points in the polls, theWashingtonPost.com stated. Many low income workers stated that their main concerns were the economy, affordable healthcare, and illegal immigration; McCain should address those issues to a fuller extent if he wishes to gain the support of a vital voting bloc (1). McCain also needs to appeal more strongly to independent voters and play off of the ‘Maverick’ image as a person who is willing to do what is right for his country and not simply blindly follow party lines.
1. Obama Leads, Pessimism Reigns Among Key Group
2. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108034/Candidate-Support-Age.aspx
3. MPR Poll: Obama leads, but contest is fluid
4. http://www.gallup.com/poll/108052/Candidate-Support-Church-Attendance-Among-Whites.aspx
Obama is very popular with minorities. Especially with African-Americans, who, in a poll showed that 92% supported him, stating that he would be “more concerned with their problems.” More than 40% of the Hispanics that were surveyed also shared this belief. With the promises for a reformed and more affordable health plan came more supporters among the low-wage white working class (www.washingtonpost.com). A lot of the younger generation is also leaning toward Obama. More women, in a Minnesotan survey, favored him, too (http://minnesota.publicradio.org).
McCain, on the other hand, is more popular among the white senior citizens (www.salon.com 08/11/08). I think that might be partly because they lived in a time where racism was still a large problem. Some of them aren’t ready a black president yet. Or it could be because they are more conservative, so they just lean toward the Republican side more. They also might be leery of his age and level of experience, as one 64 year-old woman (Billings, MO) said in an interview (www.washingtonpost.com).
Some suggestions to increase his popularity would be for Obama to be more consistent on his answers. He should also try to be more passionate and sincere. Focus more attention on the lower class. It says in the Washington Post that these people are more likely to vote Democrat, but they’re also less likely to be registered to vote (www.washingtonpost.com). If he can make those people trust in a government figure and feel like they actually have a say in what goes on among the millions of other citizens, then he’ll get more votes.
According to the provided polling data articles, the election is getting tighter. Barrack Obama still has a slight lead in some polls, generally within the margin, or is tied with McCain. Those polls don’t take into account Gov. Palin, who has seemed to bring in more of the blue collar and women vote. The latest PollingReport.com polls show the candidates in a virtual tie. The lower wage workers, in general, have a strong belief that Obama will be better at fixing the economy and improving health care (Washington Post “Obama Leads”). Meanwhile, McCain is gaining ground by painting Obama as a celebrity with little experience. Obama is also showing some reluctance to hit McCain personally (“Why Isn’t Obama Crushing McCain?”). It is obviously hard to personally attack someone who served in Vietnam and was a POW.
McCain is rising incredibly fast but he may require another thing to pick on Obama with. His recent campaign, stating that he and Palin are the “original mavericks” is a very smart idea. Making himself look bipartisan and outside of the Washington establishment is definitely important with 76% of Americans believing America is on the "wrong track" (LA Times/Bloomberg Poll of PollingReport.com). He should also take advantage of Obama’s perceived lack of experience by playing up his own experience. I, personally, know little about it, besides that he spent time in the Senate. He may have already played Obama’s inexperience to death, though. As for Obama, Palin being added to the GOP ticket has distracted all attention for now and Obama quickly has to draw comparisons between McCain and himself. Obviously talking about Palin has only hurt him lately, as the “lipstick on a pig” thing has shown. Some things that he could do are draw on his education and health-care plans, along with his economic plans to sure up his blue-collar base. He has to re-convince people not to look at the glam associated with Palin, things like her strong family values, and focus on the #1, John McCain. Obama was doing much better when he was playing to his blue-collar strengths and making McCain look like an old-school partisan politician. It would hopefully help Obama play down the elitist look that the McCain camp has played up. He should remind people he grew up lower middle-class, under a single-mother and then his grandparents. Palin does need to be addressed by the Obama campaign but it should be done by Joe Biden. He should remind everyone, especially the independents, that she is incredibly socially conservative, she has lobbied for federal money (and gotten a lot), and the oil pipeline she is propped on, according to many economists and people in the industry, will not put much of a dent in oil prices. Both campaigns have a long fight ahead, gearing up for the general.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPd4yk0x-eg (lipstick on a pig video)
From Kyle:
Obama still has a small lead in the campaign due to his astounding support from minorities, lower-class families, and other groups who typically vote democratic. The reason he has this support is because Obama and the Democratic Party in general is viewed as more empathetic than McCain and the Republican Party (Washingtonpost). However, he is having problems with the upper-class Americans because they know that Democrats typically raise taxes a lot to cover the numerous governmental programs they initiate. If Obama wants to improve his campaign, he has to secure some support from the upper-class. If he could guarantee a reasonable tax level so he won’t anger higher class people, yet still accumulate enough money to fund the programs for lower-class people he would probably acquire a significant lead again. His biggest problem facing his campaign is the criticisms over his lack of political experience. He needs to prove himself knowledgeable and strong enough leader if he is to win this election.
According to many recent polls, McCain is close behind Obama in the election, and it is likely he will take the advantage soon. Due to a reasonably successful convention, and his nomination of Sarah Palin, his support increased significantly. He already has support from upper-class families, and many citizens from the southern states. Some reasons for his increasing popularity is the Republican tendency to keep taxes lower than Democrats, his experience in government, and his Patriotism that everyone saw in his speeches at the Republican Convention. However, he faces the issue of lower class people thinking they will be ignored if another Republican president takes office. McCain has to differentiate himself from Bush, and prove he is a more empathetic president than Bush is.
The real deciding factor in this election though is who has a better plan for fixing the economical issues. Whoever can propose a better solution to lower gas prices and restore American jobs will easily steal the election through the support of many lower-class people and the 2/3 of white workers who will support whichever candidate can lower gas prices (Washingtonpost). McCain has already worked to suspend the gas tax, so it is likely people will support him since he has already taken action to fix the gas price crisis.
Obama and McCain are both following a same platform of change. Both neither want to associate themselves with the failing presidency of George W Bush, and both are doing a great job at doing so. I think that Obama is doing a better job at doing that because of his continued support of changing most of Bushes economic plans and military plans that he has lead the country into such as taxing people that make above 250,000 dollars a year (http://www.barackobama.com/issues/), and have a faised pull back of forces from Iraq and move some to Afganistan to fight the Taliban and futher the search for Osama Bin Laden (http://www.barackobama.com/issues/). In most of his political speaches he states that the U.S is ready for a change noted accross his web page and his speeches. His world wide success and popularity has gotten him vast amounts of money a total of 65,837,803 dollars more than half of the 32,768,214 dollars that McCain has raised (http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/). This will be a major boost toward Obamas presidential run for TV comericials and other advertisements.
The one thing that i think that Obama is doing the best at is protecting the middle class which is the biggest class of people in the U.S which make up 47 to 49 percent of the total population. He will get a great deal of votes from that population increasing his chances of getting voted into the white house.
One of the things that he has failed to do is to make the average person to feel better about his foregn polocy. He wants to take a easyer stance on other countrys and try to strengthen ties to the middle east and some countrys that we call enemys. Dont get me wrong i think that it is a great idea. But the point is, is that the average american will think that its a horrible idea and they wont feel safe with him leading our country and in turn will vote for McCain who makes them feel safer when it comes to forregn polocy. I think that he should foccuss on strengthing his polocy but still be simipathetic toward other countrys cause i believe that would be a great idea on getting on other countrys better sides which we are not as of right now.
Obama and McCain are now running neck and neck in the political race for president. According to pollingreport.com Obama has a lead by an average of 2 points. McCains choice of Palin for his running mate has brought more woman to his side, even though Obama still has the larger group. Both are attracting a lot of the same people, not just one group. Obama holds the low wage vote 2 to 1(Washington post), but with Palin on his side more blue collar voters are coming to the side of McCain. But this leads into another topic, economics. In such articles as in the Washington Post both white and minority are saying that their personal finance will not change whether Obama or McCain win. A factory worker from Kentucky says,"I really don't think it's going to matter either way." Two thirds of white workers say that the gas prices need to be lowered, a point made by McCain early in the election(washington post). The point that comes across with immigration is that 49% believe that undocumented workers steal jobs from those that work legally(washington post).I believe that whomever of the two decide to address this issue in favor of those 49%, will see a change of working class in there favor.
McCain has the support from white woman over Obama after he selected Sarah Palin as his Vice President in his attempt to become elected in November. He has a 47% to 44% advantage over Obama in white women after selecting Palin as Vice President. McCain has an over all lead in people that are likely to vote while Obama has a lead in demographic voters, but if these voters don’t vote he can’t win in the long run. All this information comes from the article by the Washington Post from Monday August 4th 2008. In the article from Salon, McCain is separately himself in his approach to get elected from Bushes ideas giving him an advantage with more people. It is getting the extra votes he needs in order to win the overall election.
Obama has the support from three main groups of people. The first would be white women as said in the MPR poll. Women voters preferred Obama over McCain by 16 points. But the men were split in between for both of the candidates. Senator Obama has an advantage over Senator McCain in the low-wage workers with a 2 to 1 edge. Obama also has the obvious advantage with the traditional Democratic constituencies, as said in the Washington Post, the African American and the Hispanics. Obama has the advantage by 10 points with a lead of 47% to 37%.
McCain will need to improve his ways of getting the interest of low wage workers because they feel like it wouldn’t make a difference if they vote or not. It will make the biggest difference since it’s just a close election every vote will matter. McCain needs to follow his experience over Obama experience and that will take him a long way in this election. McCain will also need to emphasize the lowering of gas prices as said in the Washington Post. The more voters he gets the more opportunity he will get the swing vote which will make the most difference in the overall election. The more McCain distances himself from Bush the better off he will be.
Obama will experience more success if he gets the rumors clarified on the internet. In the MPR poll, the poll found that 9 % believe Obama is Muslim when he really is a practicing Christian. 42% of people did not know that he was a practicing Christian. Obama needs to have more substance in the issues he tries to cover. The more depth he goes with the issues he supports the better off he will be in the election. Obama needs people to get to the polls so it will ensure him of getting those votes which are crucial in winning the election in the end. Obama needs to gain new voters by the Election Day because it will place him in a better position of getting elected according to the Salon article.
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