2008 Presidential Election: Last response post

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Last response post - due 10/30

Please respond to a peer by 10/30. This will be your last post of the quarter. Thanks for doing such an amazing job. I am really enjoying reading your posts. - M. Aby

47 comments:

M. Conrad said...: To Asia

I think it is an interesting point you made about the Republican Party being more motivated to gain Latino votes because everyone assumes they will vote Democrat. I agree that this knowledge probably is inspiring the party to try harder to gain more support from this particular group. Even if they really stepped up their campaigning among the Hispanic community, however, I don’t think that the Republicans could sway enough voters to gain a majority in the 2008 election.

I disagree with the statement that the Republicans would do better if they softened their views on immigration. Though this has been the major issue that has driven away Latino voters (1), the party cannot risk losing the supporters they already have because of their stance. If they changed their opinion they would gain many votes from the Hispanic community, but they would lose many more from the very conservative end of the spectrum. I don’t think that it would be a very good strategy. Besides, even though this issue is a big reason why many Latinos are not voting Republican, 29% of the Latino community still thinks that Republicans are equipped to handle immigration (2).

I just don’t think there is any way for the Republican Party to gain enough support from this community by election time, no matter how hard they try. Even if they do manage to change the minds of some voters, such a large majority of Latinos say they will vote Democrat that it seems almost impossible that this will make much of a difference.

1.http://politicalinsider.com/2006/11/hispanic_vote_key_in_2008.html
2.http://www.lulac.org/advocacy/press/2006/gotv4.html; October 27, 2007 4:05 PM
playandgetburnt said...: This is to Molly/Asia...I'm just answering the one above me (i just made it more difficult for myself).
I agree that the Republican Party could be inspired by the idea that most Latino voters will vote Democrat. I also agree that it would be impossible for the Republicans to win on both fronts. If they forget about immigration, they will lose the people who care about immigration and if they keep their stance on immigration issues, they will lose the Latino vote. The GOP probably knows this and because of it they are now trying to appeal to many Republican Latinos by talking about taxes, family values and faith (1). The article I just cited also agrees with me that it is an uphill battle. However, if Republican candidates are not even coming to many of the debates the Latino community organizes, which I mentioned in my post, the only message the voters will get is that the GOP does not care about their issues which would mean that they are losing this massive part of the electorate (2).

I agree with Molly that the GOP will not be able to win those votes in time for the 2008 election. I think that if they try to do anything right now it would be too little too late. The ratio of Latino Democrats to Republican democrats is 2:1 which means that the Democrats would get most of the Latino vote even if the Republicans would try really hard. Sadly, the GOP is not doing very well and Molly is right that, at this point anything they do will be not make much of a difference.

(1)http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071022/NEWS/710220455/-1/RSS01
(2)http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071022/NEWS/710220455/-1/RSS01; October 28, 2007 1:22 AM
VictorW said...: To Rachel:

I agree with most of your post and also believe that the majority of Latinos will vote for the Democrats in the 2008 election. However, I disagree with your beliefs on how the Republicans can regain the Latino vote. While it would help the Republicans to be more involved in the Hispanic community, I think it is too late for the Republicans to try this strategy because it won’t get them enough Hispanic votes. The Republican’s past policy towards the Latinos, like skipping Hispanic conventions and their anti-immigration policy as you mentioned, would likely mean that Latinos would be able to see through the Republicans actions if they tried to be more involved in the community (1). Also, recent Republican policy shows that the Republicans likely won’t try this attempt (2). Even if they were to spend more time with the Latino community, the Republicans would be starting behind top Democratic candidates (3) (4). Rather, I believe the Republicans should focus on the part of the Latino community that could vote Republican based on their policy beliefs. Given that the Hispanic community is so diverse, there are going to be certain Hispanics that can be persuaded to vote Republican based on Republican issues (5). For example, Cuban-American voters could be persuaded to vote Republican based on the Republican’s policies towards Cuba (5). If the Republicans can persuade voters like that, I feel that they will be able to win more of the Hispanic vote that they would by getting involved in the Hispanic community. Also, getting involved in the Hispanic community could alienate some Republican voters who could view those actions as hypocritical towards the Republican anti-immigration policy. Getting involved with the community may be a better long term strategy. However, if the Republicans want to get enough Hispanic votes to win the 2008 election, I believe they should target Hispanics whose policy leans towards the Republican side because that will be a better short term strategy.

1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/
wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/
AR2007101201425.html
2. http://www.statesman.com/blogs/
content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/
immigration/entries/2007/10/04/
bushs_schip_veto_could_hurt_go.
html
3. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/
20071005/pl_afp/usvote2008
clintonhispanics_071005135516
4. http://www.chicagotribune.com/
news/la-na-obama21oct21,1,3260539.
story?ctrack=1&cset=true
5. http://edition.cnn.com/2007/
US/09/28/hispanic.vote/; October 28, 2007 2:39 PM
Shaun Fernandes said...: To Caitlin:

I completely agree with your view. You did a lot of objective research, and I agree that the Latino vote should be sought by both parties. It makes sense for the Republicans to try and promote their family values and religiosity, because these are 2 of a limited amount of stances that they share with Latinos. Republicans believe very strongly in physical barriers to illegal immigration, like you mentioned. However, I found that two of the top Democrats, Clinton and Obama, also support physical barriers. They both voted for a wall dividing the USA and Mexico, as well as increased border security (1). On the other hand, Clinton and Obama support guest worker programs and easier immigration standards (1). From this information, it seems that Latino voters will be fairly conflicted when picking a candidate. The Democrats are slightly more pro-immigrant, but even they have tough stances on the issue. Personally, I believe that Edwards has the best stance on the issue. He supports increased border security so that the problem of illegal immigration does not get any worse. In addition to that, he wants more reform in the business sector so that illegal immigrants are not abused. Finally, he would offer amnesty with some conditions, because it would be impractical to deport the 12 million illegal immigrants in our country (1). This stance (or one similar to it) seems like the best route, because it stops the hemorrhaging, cures the cancer, and lets the body heal and start over fresh. Unfortunately, the most logical solution is not always the best, due to illogical voter behavior. Some Latinos may view this policy as being too harsh. In the hope of receiving more votes, many politicians are trying to pander to a population that would eliminate borders. I do not doubt that there are many well qualified Mexican illegal immigrants, but in order for a country to remain sovereign it must have stable borders. I obviously do not advocate closed borders, because I am an immigrant and believe that we need to accept immigrants into our country. Especially now, when the population of the USA is declining and the economy is slowing down, is it most important. But I digress. Your suggestions for receiving the Latino vote seem like exactly the right solution. I am certain that if the Republicans continue to alienate the Latino voters, there is no hope for their party in 2008. Immigration seems like it will be a top issue in the upcoming election. Unfortunately, it seems to be one that most Democratic candidates are tiptoeing around in the fear of alienating their voter base.

1 - ontheissues.org
2 - johnedwards.com; October 28, 2007 3:10 PM
Alex Z said...: To Heather
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Republicans have been seriously overlooked as a possibility for the Latino vote. Latinos still have a choice between Democrats and Republicans; otherwise neither party would be focused on courting them. You site many good references for why the Latinos would join the Democrats, but you need to take into account more aspects than just past voting behavior and immigration. For instance, the Republicans are very close to Latinos voters when it comes to family issues and morality. The RNC chairman said at the NALEO conference in 2005. "...Your interests are our interests...your cause is our cause. We share your pride in your country, your love for your family, and your faith in your God. We welcome your culture and your contributions...your gifts and your goodwill. And we won't stop until everyone in this room says, Mi partido es su partido (2)." I believe that this quote sums up what the Republican Party is trying to do to connect with Latino voters. The Republican Party is stressing the moral values that the average Latino has and why the social conservative nature of the Republican Party should appeal to many Latinos (4). Latinos, by a vast majority, are devout Roman Catholics who follow the lead of the pope. This means that they are conservative in their views of marriage, family and abortion. Many Latinos view marriage as between a man and a woman and will support the Republicans on the issue of gay marriage. The same argument applies to abortion. Many Latinos are likely to be pro-life because of their religious views. Consequently, some Latinos are split on the issue of immigration. Several Latinos came to America using the system in place and do not want their chances for jobs to be taken after they finally reached America. Also, not all Latinos are immigrants. Specifically, sixty-one percent of those labeled Latinos were born in the United States (3). Therefore, all Latinos do not have to have a specific stance on immigration. In Florida, the top issues for Latino voters were education, crime, and taxes (4). To assume that Latinos will vote solely on the issue of immigration is misleading.

In the 2000 presidential race, President Bush received thirty-one percent of the Latino vote due to strenuous outreach programs (1). This shows that the Republicans realize the importance of the Latino vote. This also was a huge step in gaining the Latino vote, as the Republicans had not ever reached that high of a percentage of Latino voters in earlier elections. I think that if the Republicans work a little harder to gain the Latino vote, they might just be able to steal enough from the Democrats to win.
Sources:
1. http://www.gop.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=6978
2. http://www.gop.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=5577
3. http://depthome.brooklyn.cuny.edu/risc/All%20of%20Part%20I%2010-21-021.pdf
4. http://www.heraldtribune.com/article/20071022/NEWS/710220455/1030/OPINION01; October 28, 2007 4:42 PM
Elise Gale said...: To: Alyssa G

I agree with you that the main reason Democrats win the Latino vote is the attention and effort they put into that group. Some of the Republicans' "safest" states are gaining Latino voters. Although this may not be translating into electoral college votes yet, Arizona alone is over 25% Latino. The more voter drives that occur in states like Nevada and New Mexico, the more likely it is that Latino voters will show up and vote Democrat.

However, democrats have a tendency to lose momentum as the campaign goes on. The 2008 election does not seem very close now, but by 2008 the Republicans have a good chance of closing the gap. The Latino vote will be more important than ever in this pivotal election.

Sources:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20040105/cobble
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oe-malanga18oct18,0,2480105.story?coll=la-opinion-center; October 28, 2007 4:50 PM
Mia Howard said...: To: Alex Z.

I think that you made many valid points in your response, especially when you said that assuming “Latinos will vote solely on the issue of immigration is misleading.” In a 2004 national survey, Latino voters were asked which issues were extremely important in influencing their vote. Immigration ranked eleventh, with only 27% of Latinos voting for it. On the contrary, education, the economy, and healthcare received over 50% support and the war in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism, and crime each had 40% support or higher. Taxes and moral values, issues where the Republican party has the advantage over the Democrats even ranked higher than immigration with 33% and 36%, respectively (1).

Also, more Hispanic students are graduating from high school and attending colleges today than in the past. Although the increase in graduation and college attendance rates has only increased slightly, it is expected to continue growing in the future. Many schools and colleges are implementing programs to encourage Latino students to pursue a higher education (2). Typically, a higher education level leads to a higher salary, which then leads to a more politically conservative viewpoint. Although I still believe that the Democrats will capture the majority of Latino votes, the Republican Party still has a chance to gain more support from the growing Hispanic American population.

1. http://pewhispanic.org/newsroom/releases/release.php?ReleaseID=14
2. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0DXK/is_3_22/ai_n13619954; October 28, 2007 6:50 PM
judy ly said...: To: Macall

I agree that, overall, the Democratic platform is more attractive to Latinos, and that drastically changing the Republican platform would only alienate existing party members. However, I disagree that policy changes are needed for the GOP to draw a larger base of support in the Latino community. Hispanics, in general, tend to skew conservative on social issues. One of the reasons why Bush gained so much Latino support in 2004 was that he knew how to appeal to the community by making the common ground between the Hispanic community and the GOP the focus of his campaign for the Latino vote (1). If one of the Republican candidates could appeal to the community in the same way, and also seem legitimate in doing so, results similar to 2004 could occur again. This would prevent the Dems from using the Hispanic vote to determine the outcome of heavily Hispanic swing states.

I think the greatest obstacle standing in the way of the GOP stealing away a large chunk of the Latino vote is their own disregard for the importance of Latinos in determining the results of the 2008 election. If the GOP is not willing to devote time and effort into reaching out to the Latino community, then the Democrats will receive most of the Latino vote by default.

(1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html; October 28, 2007 7:06 PM
Megan Brown said...: In response to Michelle Howard’s post:
As already voiced, I agree that the Latino population will predominately vote Democratic in the 2008 Presidential race. Immigration reform seems to be an obvious issue in which Latino voters are concerned with. An article in the LA Times, however, argues this accusation. A 2004 Washington Post poll claims that immigration is actually the most important issue among only 3.5% of Hispanic voters (1). The article argued that immigration reform proposed by the Republican Party including increased border security and a tougher immigration policy actually benefited them, based on recent economic studies. Average wages and more housing in Latino communities would hypothetically result from Republican’s ideas on immigration in practice (1). It also compared the immigration issue to that of the civil rights issue with African-Americans, saying that they are completely dissimilar, as African-Americans were fighting for Constitutional rights and the current issue of immigration isn’t about rights at all; Republicans opposing civil rights legislation in the 1960’s has nothing to do with Latino voters now, especially not so when affiliated with hostile feelings towards that time in history. Immigration obviously isn’t the only means for the Latino population to vote Democratic, and I still think that they will, void of immigration policies altogether.
The same article also discussed the decline in support among Latino voters for the Republican Party since 2004, saying that the decline was not unique to that group alone. The GOP lost support from all constituencies since 2004. Union members and white evangelicals lost a surprising 10% and 8%, respectively (1). Bush actually lost more support among core Republican voters than the Latino population overall.

http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-malanga18oct18,0,7570373.story?coll=la-home-commentary; October 29, 2007 2:17 PM
Sophie Johnson said...: To Alyssa,

Do you really think that the Republicans are anti-immigrant? To a certain extent, I would agree with you. However, I'd more likely say that they're against illegal immigrants, not immigrants who are here legally.

Yes, Republicans are known for their strict and sometimes radical anti-illegal immigration point of views. However, although Republicans might adopt impertinent viewpoints on immigration, illegal immigrants won't be able to show their displeasure by voting for a non-Republican candidate (illegal immigrants do not have the right to vote).

Instead, this task is left to the Latino immigrants who are in the United States legally, and many have already voiced their displeasure (1). Many are offended by the "harsh rhetoric of some congressional Republicans in the immigration debate and the opposition by most of the GOP...to legal status for illegal immigrants now in the USA" (1). Acting as the voice for the illegal population as well as their own, the Latino voters will play an interesting role in the 2008 election.

I do agree with your statement of how Latino voters are becoming increasingly important within swing states. Unfortunately for Republicans, most candidates are concerned with appealing to their fellow Republicans than to the Latino voting community. Under the status quo, Republican candidates are more focused on winning a nomination (the reason for their appeasement of fellow Republicans), but it's possible that they will expand their base later on in the election, reaching out to the Latino community in an attempt to win back 2004 election statistics (1).

What I find most interesting, however, is that it's not necessary to be anti-illegal immigration in order to be conservative, or Republican. In fact, if you look to the presidency of Ronald Reagan, he adopted a pretty pro-immigration viewpoint when he was in office. Even George Bush ran with a semi pro-immigration policy in 2000 and 2004, which coincidentally, earned him 30% and 40% of the Latino vote (2). In my opinion, Republicans should stop being concerned with appearing strictly anti-immigration (thus committing "political suicide") and should reach out to the Latino voting community in earnest (2).

1. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-06-27-hispanics-dems-cover_N.htm
2. http://www.newsday.com/news/columnists/ny-opkea275348007aug27,0,7582669.column; October 29, 2007 3:32 PM
K. Z. said...: To: Michelle Ludwig
You make several very good points in your article. It is most certainly true that most Hispanic voters have voted Democratic in the past. However, those who are able to vote a legal citizens. Therefore, as shown by polls, immigration is not their main concern. 89% said that improving public education was one their top priorities. While relaxing immigration standards in the United States could make the Republican party slightly more popular among Hispanic voters, it does not seem as if it would make a big impact. Rarely in recent history, if ever, has the Republican party been seen as the best choice for public programs and education. While one could see how appealing to their religious side could be wise, I doubt it will have much effect. In general, as shown in our text book’s charts, Catholics are more likely to vote Democratic. So while focusing on “family values” could win the Republican party a few votes, it seems unlikely that this would swing the population’s vote as a whole. As their priority of education shows, the Hispanic population will likely vote based off of social programs and what an average citizen might vote based on. Also, the fact that John McCain was the only Republican candidate to agree to participate in a Univision Spanish debate shows that the Republican candidates are not making that much of an effort to win Hispanic people’s votes. Overall, I see no way that the Republican party can win the majority of Hispanic people’s votes.

http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/immigration/entries/2007/10/15/mc

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/324150/poll_latino_voters_say_education_is.html; October 29, 2007 5:08 PM
MHoward said...: To: Silas
From: Michelle Howard

In response to your first post on the Latino vote for the 2008 presidential election, for the most part I do agree with you in saying that the democrats will most likely prevail. As seen in past voter turnout rates in the Latino community, political analysts are expecting around 10% of the voters in the 2008 election will be Latino (1). That is a big chunk of votes that will be crucial to those up for the presidency next year. Looking back at the last presidential election of 2004 President Bush was only able to secure 40% of the Latino votes, a surprisingly high percentage. However, in the 2006 election, republicans were only able to obtain 30% of the Latino votes (1). Following this trend, it seems obvious that the majority of Latino votes will go to the Democrats. Many people believe the Republicans are in a tight position when it comes to their ability to appeal to the Latinos and gain the majority. This is largely due to the Proposition 187 passed in 1994 by the push of the Republicans. The proposition was designed to deny health care, education, and welfare benefits to immigrants (1).
So yes the Republicans do have much work to do if they want to gain headway in the Latino community and vote but it will not be impossible as Silas seemed to think. A favorable factor for the Republicans is the rise in Latinos who affiliate themselves with the church as ‘evangelicals’ or ‘born again Christians’. Due to this affiliation 2/3 of this population say they better relate to Republican views and are more likely to vote that way (1). Another smart way for the republicans to gain votes would be to work on compromising and working with the Democrats to push legislation through for an immigration reform. A good point made by the NALEO member Vargas is that although immigration may be the topic of the moment, it is likely to change. He said, “If the election were held today, I think immigration would be a significant factor, but we’re more than a year away from the election.” Recent meetings from this group have actually shown that education, the Iraq war, the economy, and health care have taken precedence over immigration in the eyes of the Latino voters. On this information Vargas said, “We need to distinguish issues that matter to the Latino community versus the issues that matter to Latino voters. Those are not the same,” (2). Lastly the Hispanic community is very diverse so their voting interests are not homogenous making it hard to accurately predict the turnout (2). If the Republicans can pull a win out with the vote of the Latinos, more power to them, but I do agree that it will take much work. The Democrats should be on the watch for a move being made by them because they need those votes as much as the Republicans do.

Michelle Howard

(1) www.hoffingtonpost.com/john-Zogby/the-battle-for-the-latino_b_35164.html
(2) www.cnn.com/2007/09/28/hispanic.vote/; October 29, 2007 5:18 PM
Liz Palin said...: To: Meghan Miller

I agree with your analysis of the Latino vote. It is always important to pay attention to which parties groups consistently vote for. There is a possibility of an upheaval, but that doesn’t often happen over the course of one election. Historically speaking, minority groups such as Latinos have voted consistently for the Democratic party.

This could be in part because the Republican party has never really taken steps to attract the minority vote. In my opinion, this is poor planning for the future. The minority vote is slowly becoming extremely powerful.

I also agree with your methods for each party to attract the Latino vote. I mentioned in my own post that the Democrats should focus on immigrant rights as they have in the past. The religion aspect didn’t even occur to me. Karl Rove’s moral value emphasis did help him gain Latino support for the Republican party, and if more Republicans were to use this angle, they could be very successful in pulling away more Latino votes.

http://www.ncdp.org/GOP+Leaders+Spurn+Minority+Vote; October 29, 2007 5:31 PM
Amy A. said...: In response to Meghan Miller:

I think your argument about the Latinos voting for Democrats simply because the party supports minority groups is a bit flawed. While I do agree that the Democratic party has done more with minority groups and minority rights in the past, I think Republicans are very aware of this and don't want to lose the largest growing group in our population to the Democratic ticket (1). Republicans have been trying to up the ante and gain support from the Hispanic community for quite some time and I don't think they're willing to give up the votes gained by President Bush in previous elections. Based on the obvious importance of the Latin American vote in 2008, both parties will be struggling to keep Hispanic votes. Something I think many people tend to generalize is that all Hispanic voters feel the same way about the issue of immigration. What was interesting for me to look at was the growing unrest among the Latin American public that the government actually wasn't doing enough to check back illegal immigration (2). I agree with you, however, that the way that Republicans have been talking about the issue of immigration has clearly upset a key portion of the potential Hispanic voters. I agree with you that if Republicans want any chance of regaining their lost support from the Latin American community, playing up the socially conservative issues (much like President Bush did during his campaigning), would be likely their only option. I think your example about how Latin American voters supported Republicans in the past based on "conservative moral values" is really good analysis to back up your claim.

1.http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/03/07/a_growing_hispanic_vote_still_favors_gop/
2.http://socrates.berkeley.edu:7001/Publications/newsletters/Spring2007/pdf/ReviewSpring2007-standard-Echaveste.pdf; October 29, 2007 5:46 PM
John Perkins said...: To: Melissa Nemcek

I agree with your statement saying that overall the Latino population will vote Democrat in the upcoming presidential election. I agree with all of the points you make in your argument. I like how you mention that the Democrats are doing everything right to get the support of the Latino community. Their stances on issues, like illegal immigration, employment, education, etc., are really giving them a step up on the Republicans in the 2008 presidential election (1). Democrats not only have stances on issues that Latinos like, but they are also focusing their attention on Latino voters. Clinton especially is doing everything she can to capture the Latino vote (2).

I also like how you mention that Latinos really like the family values of the Republican Party’s Platform (3). You also share the major reason why Republicans are losing so many voters that technically should be voting for the Republican Party. Republicans’ stance on illegal immigration has basically screwed them over for this election (4). You also make a good point about the fact that they need to focus their attention on Latino voters. Republicans can’t afford to ignore this huge portion of the countries voters in the upcoming election. In order to have any chance of winning in the 2008 presidential election the Republican Party and its candidates are going to have to make major changes to how they are treating the Latino community of the United States.

I would like to add to your argument that Latinos have been aligned with the Democratic Party for much longer than you make it seem. Latinos have been aligning themselves with the Democratic Party ever since the elections of Franklin Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy (2). You also don’t mention that Republicans have been putting forth legislation that hurts illegal immigrants. Legislation like Proposition 187, which denied healthcare, welfare benefits, and education to illegal immigrants, that was passed in California by Republicans in 1994 (5).

(1) http://www.matt.org/english/editorial/democracy_
accountability_&_civic_responsibility/387_getting_
the_latino_vote_in_2008.html
(2)http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfYbPLF
UmEw-IoEVUUVfPR7wRShQ
(3)http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/
local_news/stories/2007/10/07/Latino.ART_ART_10-07-07_A1_9N84AGA.html?sid=101
(4) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-martinez20oct20,1,165940.story?coll=la-news-politics-
national&ctrack=1&cset=true
(5)http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/
09/28/hispanic.vote/
index.html?iref=newssearch; October 29, 2007 6:27 PM
Caitlin Mitchell said...: In response to Liz’s post,

I agree that the Latino population is currently one with politically underrepresented interests. Furthermore, I agree that neither party is taking the appropriate actions in order to fully win their support. As Liz mentioned, immigration is a major opportunity for parties to capture the Latino vote. One-third of Latinos cited immigration as what is, in their opinion, the most important issue in the upcoming election. With democrats taking rather non-cohesive stances on this matter, and republicans taking a generally ruthless position, an adjustment by either party could significantly influence Latino voters. At this stage, I do agree that the Democrats have the advantage with this collective, and that the Republicans have a bit more work to do. This past June, speaking on immigration reform, President Bush remarked, "I view this as an historic opportunity for Congress to act, for Congress to replace a system that is not working with one that we believe will work a lot better. In other words, this is a moment for people who have been elected to come together, focus on a problem, and show the American people that we can work together to fix the problem." With such drastically different ideologies and proposals amidst our government in regards to immigration, I think it will be a difficult, yet necessary task to implement effective reforms. It is not only important that we show the American people that the problem can be fixed, but also that we prove to Mexico and the Latin community that we will provide a positive country for them to immigrate to and vote in as well. After all, it may be their 16 million voter potential that shapes the election in 2008.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20071029/lovato
http://www.whitehouse.gov/infocus/immigration/
http://www.nclr.org/content/publications/download/46271; October 29, 2007 6:45 PM
The Almighty Toasty! said...: Response to everyone who believes that the Republican Party stands no chance of winning the Latino vote so late in the campaign for the upcoming election:

First of all I would like to commend everyone on so thoroughly explaining why Latinos will most likely vote democratic in the upcoming election. You pretty much left me with nothing to say for that side of the argument. So I guess I'll just comment on what I noticed in a couple of the posts. I noticed that a few people have made a point that the Republican Party does not have a chance of swinging enough votes from the Latino community while still keeping their “base” voters at this point in the race. I honestly find that hard to believe. I think some forget that we have a little over a year before the election and there is a lot that can be accomplished by the Republican Party. We should not underestimate the power of the republicans. They have a strong power of persuasion that should not be underestimated by the public or the democrats, which is why the democrats should keep a tight grip on the lead they now have.

~Asia; October 29, 2007 7:12 PM
LaurenVann said...: To: Tenzin
Tenzin, I agree with your comment that Latinos will vote Democrat due to the fact that Democrats have historically reached out to minorities and how Republicans tend to stick to social issues. However, a good point was brought up about how Latinos are mostly Catholic-70 percent-and Catholics support conservative social values such as banning gay marriage. Latino political activism is in many way influenced by Catholic values. Also, it was good to point out that Bush received 42 percent of the Latino vote in the 2004 election. This is a big number and these types of percentages could potentially give the Republican party a chance for success in the upcoming election. Tenzin also made a good argument that in order to gain more Latino votes, Rupublicans should not make english the official language. America is known as "the melting pot" meaning that it is made up of many different cultures. It would only make sense not to have a national language because there are a mix of so many different cultures and laguages; not just english.

Sources:
www.nclr.org
www.facsnet.org; October 29, 2007 7:19 PM
Michelle R said...: I’m responding to John Perkins. While I agree that Latinos will probably once again follow tradition and vote for Democrats, there needs to be a discussion about the chances that the Republican Party has. While Proposition 187 did prevent many Latino from voting Republican, the Republicans have made some efforts to reach out. You have to remember that Bush won close to 40% of the Latino vote in 2004 (cnn.com). In 2000, both Gore and Bush gave speeches to a Latino audience in Spanish. Bush was praised for his ability to speak conversational Spanish and relate to the Latinos (www.findarticles.com/p/articles). Plus many Latinos don’t even identify with a party anymore (www.pewhispanic.org). Another huge flaw in the argument is that illegal immigration is no longer the number one issue concerning Latinos. Education and the War on Terror are even more important to this minority (www.pewhispanic.org)
In response to the second portion regarding how Republicans should gather Hispanics votes, I also disagree to some extent. I agree to the fact that Republicans desperately need to reach out to Latinos. However, I don’t think Republicans can just change their stance on illegal immigration to attract Latinos without appearing fake. I think Republicans should simply emphasize the issues that they have in common with Latinos like religion, fiscal policy, etc. (www.pewhispanic.org) While Democrats will probably get the vote, I don’t think Republicans should be counted out of the race.; October 29, 2007 7:28 PM
Katie Plasynski said...: Response to: John Perkins

I think you made some very good points in your argument about how the Democratic Party has had an effective policy in winning the Latino vote. However, there are certain parts of your argument that I disagree with. I first must disagree with your statement that the Republican Party is an anti-immigrant party. I find this terminology to be ambiguous. The Republican Party is very concerned about border protection and ensuring national security thus labeling themselves as an anti-illegal immigration party. As John McCain said, “… this is a national security issue first and foremost. What we have done is come together with the President, and the leaders of both parties, and sit down and figure out an approach to this problem. It is a serious national security problem…” McCain also recognized how immigration has enriched our culture. “We have to stop the illegal immigration, but we've had waves throughout our history. Hispanics is what we're talking about, a different culture, a different language, which has enriched my state where Spanish was spoken before English was. In Washington DC, go to the Vietnam War Memorial and look at the names engraved in black granite. You'll find a whole lot of Hispanic names. They must come into country legally, but they have enriched our culture and our nation as every generation of immigrants before them” (1). This exemplifies a Republican candidate who is very much anti-illegal immigration but pro-legal immigration. The Republican Party recognizes the benefits immigrants have brought to this country. The term anti-immigration implies that the Republican Party oppose all legal immigration as well, which is simply not true. In fact, many business interests that the Republican Party supports rely on immigrant labor (2).
Secondly, I must address your solution on how the Republican Party can gain more of the Latino vote. I believe it to be irrational for the Republican Party to change their stance on illegal immigration and immigration reform. Although they may gain more support from the Latino community, they would also lose a significant amount of support from others that they already have on this issue. I think the Republican Party should stick to focusing on family and moral issues in order to gain support from the Latino community. It would be their best bet to gaining the most possible votes.

1. www.ontheissues.org/2008/John_McCain_Immigration.htm
2. http://www.newsbatch.com/immigration.htm; October 29, 2007 7:34 PM
Terrifying Space Monkey said...: To: Michelle

I disagree that the Republican Party can make headway with Latinos by toning down their rhetoric. Regardless of what they say from now on, voters will remember what they've said in the past and that will have an impact. A switch at this point might just be percieved as a cynical move to get votes.
Also, if they do tone down their anti-immigration position, they risk losing the support of the part of their base that wants to be tough on illegal immigrants. That might lose them some votes from that quarter.

While many people see social issues such as abortion and gay marriage as important, I feel like most think that other domestic issues and foreign policy trumps those concerns. People tend to vote most about policies that actually affect them, such as the immigration issue for Latino voters. In the next election, that will probably be the prevailing concern.; October 29, 2007 7:40 PM
EricMortensen said...: This is a response to Lauren Vann

I agree with most of what you said however I believe that Republicans can gain some Latino votes without the drastic policy changes you proposed. Some of the things you proposed would be somewhat unpopular with the more traditional base of the Republicans and to turn their back on that base would be a bad move politically. So obviously they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. I believe at this point the Latino campaign must be more or less damage control. I think however that a substantial amount of votes can be won by highlighting the moral stances that republicans have most specifically their strong ties with religion. Latinos in general believe heavily in family values and in faith in general and this matches with a lot of the Republican campaign strategies. I do not think it is possible for the GOP to change many stances on immigration at this point but I do believe they can win a substantial amount of votes with their family morals stance on American life and I believe that is the only way they can appeal to the Latino demographic without sacrificing their traditional base

(1)http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/index.html?iref=newssearch
(2)
http://hola-america.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=188&Itemid=2; October 29, 2007 8:21 PM
Christina R said...: I am responding to Molly Conrad’s post. I thought that your post was very insightful and mentioned some very important points. One important point you made was about the overwhelming support for Democratic candidates such as Clinton from the Hispanic community (1). I used one of the same articles for my post as you, and I found the statistic of 3 to 1 Hispanics classifying themselves as Democrats very interesting (1). I also agree with your point that the Democratic candidates are actively reaching out to the Hispanic community. The example of the NALEO convention which all Democratic candidates attended is a great example of the effort the Democratic candidates are putting into connecting with the Hispanic community (1). The last point you made, which I think is very important, is that Republicans could attract Hispanic voters by changing their views on immigration and illegal immigration, but this action would be very unwise for Republicans. I agree that Republicans changing their views would lead to a major loss of votes from their main voter base, which consists of people who support stricter illegal immigration policies.

One point in your post that I would disagree with is the idea that the Republican stance on moral issues will not be enough to persuade many Hispanic voters to vote Republican. I do think with recent Republican actions, like no Republican candidates attending the NALEO convention and statements from congressional Republicans that offended some Hispanics, the connection between Republicans and Hispanics on moral issues is lessened (1). However, I think that if Republicans start to take time campaigning in the Hispanic community, they could be able to bring more attention to their connection with the Hispanic community on their traditional values. I think it is unwise to underestimate the relationship between traditional and moral values and voting. This is especially true for the Hispanic community, as it is predominately Roman Catholic and very religious. The Hispanic Churches in American Public Life national survey states that 70 percent of Latinos in America are Roman Catholic, and 74 percent of Latinos residing in America who are foreign-born are Catholic (2). As Asia stated, there is still a lot of time left before the 2008 election. I think that with a real effort, the Republican party could get a lot more votes from the Hispanic community.
(1) http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-06-27-hispanics-dems-cover_N.htm
(2) http://www.facsnet.org/issues/faith/espinosa.php; October 29, 2007 8:49 PM
Silas Berkowitz said...: In response to John Perkins:

I completely agree with every point you made in your last post. The most telling part of the Republican view towards Latinos is the participation in the recent Univision debate- the one member of the GOP race showing up is appalling (1). Also, our posts agree on one major thing- a large change has not occurred within the Republican ranks in order to make their policies more palatable to the Latino community. Regardless of what you believe in terms of morality, you will not support a party if they have been vehemently denouncing your entire community. An extreme shift in policy, like major pro-immigration legislation sponsored by Republican Congress members would be required to shift Latino support solidly to the Republican Party. However, this will never happen, as it would isolate the gun-waving, border-protecting fanatics on the extreme right side. I think we agree that the Republican Party could woo the Latino community to their ranks for the 2008 election, but they have not taken the necessary steps in order for this to occur.

1.http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=3646751&page=1; October 29, 2007 9:28 PM
AndyO said...: To Caitlin M.:

I agree very much with your post and like the amount of evidence and research you've gathered. The fact that one third of Latinos believe that immigration is the top issue of the presidential race is a very important factor that the Republicans need to account for if they have any chance of gaining the Latino vote.

While the fact is that illegal immigrants cannot legally vote and do not have a say on the issue of immigration, the Latino immigrants who have become citizens of the United States can vote. Many immigrant citizens have extended and even close family on the other side of the border. I'm sure no one would want to be separated from their families by a giant wall. This is a reason that could explain why many Latinos rank immigration as the most important issue.

Although President Bush attempted to regain the favor of Latinos in the past 6 years as president, the leader of a national organization of Hispanic Protestant clergy members believes that "The Republican Party has hurt itself already," despite the President's attempts. (1) It will be interesting to see if the Republicans try to win the Latino vote by changing some of their more radical immigration policies.

(1)https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=3517027344084016002&postID=5046773217971710230&isPopup=true; October 29, 2007 9:43 PM
Michelle said...: To: Katie Wutchiett
From: Michelle Ludwig

When writing the blog I completely forgot about how Catholics tended to vote more Democrat so thank you for reminding me of that point. I agree with the fact that it is completely doubtful that the Republican Party will win a majority of the Latinos vote, but even if immigration isn’t one of their biggest concerns, even being more friendly about it like my example before could possibly draw in more swing voters without completely having to change their issue. I thought it was interesting how you said that John McCain was the only republican candidate who was willing to participate in an Univision Spanish debate. To me that seems extremely odd and not very good planning for the Republican Party, because it is clear that the Latino minority is going to play a very big role in the outcome of an election. It seems strange that they wouldn’t even attempt something like that, especially like, what you said with more and more people leaning towards the Democrats on a count of the war.

http://www.usatoday.com; October 29, 2007 10:04 PM
Shannon McEvoy said...: I agree with Elise that the Latino voters will choose the Democratic candidate in the 2008 election. This is due to the Democrats’ successful outreach to this group. I also agree that if the Republicans have the potential to attract Latinos, but are not trying very hard to get them.

I also found it especially interesting that in the American Thinker article Elise used, Latinos do not necessarily support amnesty for illegal immigrants, a common assumption. However, in the 2004 election, a survey conducted by Pew Hispanic Center and the Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that over 8 in 10 Latinos were for the Democrats’ approach to illegal immigration (1). Bush courted the Latinos in his campaigning and won a good percent of the Latino vote, but if the Republican candidates of the 2008 election keep ignoring this growing group as they did in the Univision debates (2), they will be sorry.

(1) http://pewhispanic.org/newsroom/releases/release.php?ReleaseID=14

(2) http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/09/09/battle-for-latino-voters/; October 29, 2007 10:28 PM
Melissa Nemcek said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; October 29, 2007 11:08 PM
Melissa Nemcek said...: To: Amanda

After reading your post, I discovered my agreement and disagreement upon several points. My response to your post will address the following issues: (1) the involvement of Democrats and Republicans in campaigning for Latino support, (2) Republican support from Latinos, and (3) the voting habits of Latinos.

I agree with your claim that the Democrats are more efficient and effective at campaigning for Latino support. However, it was not caused "largely to the exclusion of Republicans." (1) The Republicans consciously and publicly declined involvement in specific Latino-focused campaign forums. Associated Press reports that top Republican candidates refused an invitation to appear on a Spanish-language Univision debate (AP). The Republicans rejected participation, but they were not excluded from it.
Evidence supports the notion that the Latino population maintains similar views to the Republican platform. Harry Pachon of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute claimed “There are a lot of issues that Latinos agree with Republican philosophy," in reference to the Republicans stances on “entrepreneurship, fiscal policies, its appeal to Hispanic evangelicals and its policies toward Cuba.” In addition, he characterizes some Latino voters as “affluent and middle class, who can theoretically be reached by Republican Party principles.” (2)

In response to the claim that Latinos will continue to vote Democrat based on pre-2004 elections, CNN reported that “The Hispanic vote is neither homogenous nor loyal to one party.” Also, several key factors including native country, state culture, and generation of birth may cause variation in Hispanic voting, and it “imperils such predictions [the Democrats are likely to win Hispanic votes]” (2). Mexican and Americans Thinking Together organization reported similar sentiments that Latinos have no party support tendencies in past elections (4).

Latinos will inevitably become present in the 2008 election. Their influence and political support remains unknown for the moment.

Sources

(1) Amanda’s post
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
(3) http://afp.google.com/article
(4) www.matt.org; October 29, 2007 11:10 PM
vincetheprince said...: Asia:
While I originally posted that I believed the Latino voters would vote with the Democrats, after reading your argument, I must now agree with you. The Latino voters may currently be siding with the Democrats, this may put a lot of pressure on the Republicans to try to sway the voters to support them. The Latino voters have gained from some of the Bush administration's programs like No Child Left Behind and various other programs. This will help the Republicans a little, but the Latinos have a history of siding with the Democrats, so the Republicans still have a large gap to close. I do however believe that this is possible if they stay on track and don't take any fringe stances on the important issues they will be able to gain the majority of the Latino voters.

1: Same as in original post
2: Asia's Post
3: www.cnn.com; October 29, 2007 11:39 PM
Tenzin T. said...: To: Macall

I agree with you when you say that the Latino vote will most probably go to the Democrats in the upcoming elections because of their stances on welfare, immigration, and other social programs. However, I don’t think you look at the full scope of the Latino community in America when you classify them as “low-income” citizens. We have to realize that the Latino American community is very diverse. They hail from over 12 different nations and where they live, their moral values and how well established they are in America greatly influence their voting behavior (1). In fact, many Latinos are very well established in America and not all are ‘stealing’ entry-level from your average Joe. There have been an increasing number of those who are entering the professional fields of medicine and law/politics (1).
I also agree with you when you claim that the Republicans have failed for the most part in representing the Latino community (2). However, Bush made significant gains in the 2004 elections when he stressed moral values (1). Lots of Hispanic Americans are Catholic and tend to be more socially conservative. For this reason, I disagree with you when you say that it is not worth for the Republicans to try to garner up support of the Latinos in this country. I also don’t know what you mean when you say the only attraction for Latinos to vote Republican is tax cuts. Going off with the assumption that many Hispanic Americans are poor, this still wouldn’t attract them. When the Republicans give tax cuts, they usually give it to the wealthy upper-middle class so they can stimulate the economy by either consuming or investing. They hope for a trickle-down approach which would take too long to reach the people at the bottom of the class pyramid.

1.http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
2.http://abcnews.go.com/Politics; October 29, 2007 11:40 PM
Libby said...: Response to Megan Brown

I agree with your opinion that the majority of Latino voters will align with the Democratic party. I would also like support your argument and add that in the 2004 election, Latino citizens who voted for Bush had many different reasons for voting this way, but Kerry still won the Latino vote. Some examples of their reasons they voted for Bush include his personal history of reaching out to Latinos, his speeches in Spanish, and his conservative values. Though there seemed to be quantitatively more reasons for Latinos to vote for Bush, the quality of support the Democratic party had for the Latino community in the past had surpassed them. The Republicans also received the minority of the votes from the Christian Latino voters. (1) I found it interesting as well that 76 percent of Latino Catholics voted Democratic, and 24 percent voted Republican.
As for ways the Republican party can gain more Latino voters, I agree that campaigning and giving speeches in Spanish are important, but I do not believe that it will be enough for them to win the majority of their support. I believe that the Republicans should be more concerned with their connection with Latino voters on the grounds of their immigration policy. (2)Latino voters, many of whom responded favorably to President Bush's campaign appeals emphasizing patriotism, family and religious values in Spanish-language media in 2004, are turning away from the administration on immigration and a host of other issues. (3)According to Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network, “I think you have to look at the Republican effort on immigration as a catastrophic mistake in a year when they made many mistakes,” he said. “They now know that the Republican Party is hostile to Hispanics, which is something they didn't know two years ago. That's a big burden for them to overcome."

(1)http://www.facsnet.org/issues/faith/latino_voting.php
(2)http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/20/AR2006052000964.html
(3)http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/11/17/AR2006111701641.html; October 30, 2007 12:16 AM
Mr. Good said...: To Alyssa G

From the start, please allow me to comment on your wonderful post. Although I agreed with you that the Democratic Party would win over the Latino vote, you brought up many points of which I though were very good and interesting. I do agree that Democrats “court” if you will Latino voters better than Republicans, and I believe that the Spanish alternative within their website may be an important variation. Although the Latino vote is clearly important, the Republican Party has done little appealing to capture their vote. One issue I believe to be of importance is that of illegal immigration, which if Republicans remain steadfast in their cause of deportation, I see this as a critical aspect that may seriously hurt the chances of a conservative candidate. Another point to add of which you may have overlooked is the fact that the Latinos have benefited from government programs in the past, and they may polarize toward the Democrat Party for this same reason. In conclusion, I found your post to be truly eye opening and agree with your views completely. With this, I find that the Latino vote will go to the party with the most appealing aspects (of which now I believe to be the Democrats), and will elude the party with the least appealing aspects or lack thereof (currently the Republican Party).

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2004-11-10-hispanic-voters_x.htm

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics
/Decision2008/storyid=3565816&page=1

http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09
/28/hispanic.vote/index.html?iref=newssearch

http://www.alternet.org/story
/65195/?page=2; October 30, 2007 2:20 AM
Alyssa Vongries said...: To Megan

I agree with the direction of your post. I also thought that the Latino population would be more inclined to vote for the Republican Party. But I admit, I’m not quite sure that the fact the Latinos don’t vote for republicans directly affects their vote. Like you said I believe it is because Republican candidates largely ignore the Latinos. I think that unless the chosen Republicans candidate, whoever they might be, pays a little more attention, Hispanics will unify their vote for the Democrats in 2008. Bush’s progress in the 2004 election cannot be ignored, his attention to Hispanics, specifically through the means of Spanish spoken commercials and moral values (1,2) shows how much republicans could stand to gain from the quickly growing minority group (2).
I do not believe that the republicans have already lost and shouldn’t bother. The fact that they are religious and do vote because of their morals means that a lot of them are on the edge of voting republican (1). Because so many Hispanics are catholic it means they are also commonly conservative in some aspect or another. The reasons that the democrats are so far ahead is because they have more appealing policies for immigration, welfare and social programs in general. I think these things outweigh their republican tendencies.
(1) http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
(2) http://www.facsnet.org/issues/faith/latino_voting.php; October 30, 2007 5:05 AM
Rachel said...: To Lauren!
From Rachel

I agree with you when you say that the majority of Latino voters will vote Democratically in the 2008 presidential election. The reasons you state were the same as mine: Latinos (and most minorities) have consistently voted Democratically in past elections, the Democratic policies appeal more directly to Latinos and these policies concern the issues that Latinos care most about, and the Republicans have continually been distancing themselves from Latinos with their strict view on immigration and proposed polices to support their opinion.
There are an estimated 44 million Hispanics in this country, with about 17 million qualified to vote next November. Whichever party that gains the most support from this group will benefit in enormous ways, mostly by receiving more votes (1). Primaries that are held in states that have a larger Hispanic population and are known to be swing states (such as Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida) will have both the Democratic and Republican candidates’ full attention (1).
Latino voters have historically voted Democratically because of promises and policies established to benefit their group in past Democratic presidencies. In 1994, Latinos became more attached to the Democratic party when Proposition 187, which was designed to deny health care, education, and welfare benefits to illegal immigrants, was proposed by the Republicans and passed in California, a state with a large Hispanic population (1). In addition, the immigration debate that is present in politics right now is another example why Latinos will most likely vote Democratically. The Republicans have harsher views on immigration and have proposed policies to restrict it and extreme penalties for illegal immigrants already inside the United States. On the other hand, the Democrats are not as harsh on the subject of immigration and have proposed policies to make the immigration process more efficient in order to reduce the number of illegal immigrants (1).
In this next election, the Hispanic vote will be extremely influential in the amount of votes either of the candidates, Democrat or Republican get. The candidate that appeals most to this group and wins their support (which, at the moment, is looking like the Democratic party) will gain a significantly larger amount of votes.

1. http://www.cnn.site.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Inside+the+Hispanic+vote; October 30, 2007 7:00 AM
JBecker said...: I agree with the response of Michelle and her views on the Latino vote. The Democratic party is making great gains when it comes to the Latino vote . By focusing on issues like immigration and economic disparity, the Democrats are able to appeal to the Hispanic community. According to an article by Leonel Martinez, “Sixty percent of Latino registered voters indicated that the candidates are ignoring the issues most important to the Hispanic community.” This statistics proves that the Latino voice must be heard because the population itself is expansive. If a party were to corral the Latino vote they could walk away with a crucial percent for the presidency.
Michelle argues that the Republican party may be able to score more votes by appealing to the Catholic views of many Latinos. Though the socially conservative views of Republicans may be somewhat appealing I do not think its quite enough to sway a Latino vote from the Democratic party, especially due in large part to the past blunders of the Republican party. As found in the Zogby Poll the Hispanic population does not find that issues such as abortion and homosexual unions of utmost concern (which I assume are the issues Michelle claims Republicans could use to appeal to the Hispanic population). So what is the most pressing issues for Latinos? According to Zogby International , education is actually the number one concern for the Hispanic community. The United States lacks programs for the Latino community, and integration of educational opportunities for them would sway many to that party, benefiting that party when it comes to presidential votes. Second on the list was the economy , then immigration, civil rights, and health care. It can be concluded from the Zogby results that the average Hispanic has a more middle of the road political view versus the liberal view many think they hold.
In conclusion, I agree with Michelle on many of her points. The Latino vote is crucial for either political party in the upcoming election. The party must be sure to focus on the correct issues though, in order to obtain this vote. Education, the economy,and immigration are all top concerns of the Latino community. The battling parties must make gains in these areas to gain the Hispanic

http://www.voznuestra.com/PoliticalWires/_2004/_July/18; October 30, 2007 9:12 AM
MSmith said...: In response to Liana:

I think Liana your stance and stats on the Latino vote has changed my position from Post 4. I now too agree that the Latinos are not loyal to either Republicans or Democrats. I think the GOP stands a chance to gain their vote. However, I still believe that at this current time the Democratic Party best represents the Latinos.

There are many issues important to the Latinos: social security, welfare, education, healthcare, wages, the war, and immigration. I think what is key to getting their vote is to spend time and pay attention to them and their concerns. Broadcasting or posting a webpage in Spanish is helpful, allowing Latinos welfare benefits, pulling out of Iraq, and accepting immigration will pull in the Latino vote.

The reason I changed my mind, not only because of Liana’s statistics, is because of the own evidence I found to confirm that the Latino vote belongs to nobody yet. “Republicans also take heart in the fact that some polls show that Latinos, traditionally a Democratic constituency, are now less likely to automatically identify themselves as Democrats,” said Nicole Guillemard, a director of outreach at the Republican National Committee in Washington. I found that in 2000 about 40% of eligible Latino voters across the country voted for Bush in the first place and re-election because of his morals, taxes, and immigration plans. 80-85% of the Cuban-Americans in FL alone voted for Bush in 2000. Yet over 6 million Latinos are not even registered to vote. 17% of the FL population is Latino; there has been a recorded change in their voting behavior from conservative to progressive. States with large Latino populations (NY, FL, TX, IL, CA, and NJ) hold 181 of the 270 electoral votes; with this being said it is clear that the Latino’s will have a rather large impact on the 2008 election.

To conclude my findings, I have proven my previous post slightly wrong in that there are instances where the Latino’s voted Republican and how their vote this time around appears to be Democratic. But this is only to say that the Latino vote does not belong to a single party yet. It will be interesting to see over the next year where their vote will dominantly go.

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20040105/cobble

http://usinfo.state.gov/dhr/Archive/2004/Feb/18-514070.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html; October 30, 2007 11:41 AM
Chelsey Jernberg said...: To- Mia

I agree with your ideas on the idea that the Latino vote will most likely go to the Democrats. It is true that the Democrats have truly taken advantage of the Republicans when it comes to their lack of interest and willingness to take part in events that are important to the Latino vote. Many say that the Republicans are alienating themselves and that if they don't stop they can say good bye to the swing voters [1]. It is also important for the Republicans to realize the events (such as the You Tube and Univision debates) that they could have used to swing the voters to the Republican side [1]. Instead, the Democrats have used the Republican absence to talk about the problems that have come up and bills that haven't been passed because of the Republicans. I also agree that the Republicans have the potential to gain the Latino vote, but are failing to do so. I agree that like you said many people have explained that the Latinos and Republicans share many of the same values and this would make it possible for them to gain the vote. Right now the Democrats have advantage with the Latino vote because of the fact that they give them attention and are trying to gain the vote. The Republicans have the potential to gain the vote, but have been ignoring the Latino population and their vote. If the Republicans change the way they campaign to them, it may be possible to gain the Latino vote in the election.

1-https://144.92.104.54/article/213
2- same as original post
3- Mia's post; October 30, 2007 1:09 PM
prisbaby said...: To the people who believe Democrats will win the latino Vote:
I generally do agree with all of you as it shows in my original response to the question. Reading from many of the post, I get the impression that Democrats will win by a landslide. This is the argument that I would like to comment on. Democrats are not going to win by a landslide. If by any chance, they might end up winning by a small margin. In a society today where the issue of abortion and gay marriage are prominent, it is likely to affect the way latinos vote in this upcoming election. It shows that in the last election, it shows that latinos voted for republicans than any previous election. The Republican stance on moral issues, such as gay marriage and abortion might have affected the results. The issue especially on gay marraige is gaining leverage in our society and for that matter, I believe latinos will vote a lot more for the Republicans but not enough for them to win the latino votes. For once, I think religion will play a bigger role in determining the latino vote this year.; October 30, 2007 2:54 PM
Meghan Miller said...: I disagree with Macall that the Latinos don't support either party. I thinks the Latinos have always supported the democratic party and will continue to do so since they have the most programs supporting people on welfare and with lower incomes, as well as minorities. I also don't think there is any chance of the Republicans winning the Latino vote since in the past they have been treated unfairly and pretty much been ignored by them. I think the Latinos would see right through any attempt the republicans might make to win their vote. I also believe all domestic and social justice issues will come before religious and moral standpoints when the Latinos are deciding who will represent them best.; October 30, 2007 6:51 PM
k shir said...: Responding to Anne-
I think it's true that republicans should tone down their stances on immigration, seeing that they are definitely isolating the hispanic vote. But I also think that the republicans should publicize their traditional family-based values and ethics. A large part of the hispanic vote is Catholic and many hispanic families have very solid moral foundations. I think that the republicans could definitely use this to their advantage. Bush's speech in Espanol totally helped out as well.

Apologies for the late post. I have been preoccupied and it slipped my mind.; October 30, 2007 7:31 PM
Heather said...: tO: eRiC

Great post!! I agree with your points that due to the historical allegiance between Democrats and Latinos, coupled with the fact that the GOP has supported policies that do not favor them, the Latino vote will one again go to the Democrats. Also, I thought it was interesting that you brought up all of the ways the Republican’s views already align with that of the average Latino. Although I still believe that the Democrats will win the MAJORITY of the Latino votes, I agree that there are various things the GOP can do in order to move towards that demographic vote. I would also like to point out that although there are many things that Republicans have in common with the Latinos, it comes down to the fact that some issues are more important to this group then others, such as immigration and the debates surrounding it. And it should be since approximately 75% of illegal aliens come from Middle America (1). Like you said, in order to have a chance at winning the majority at this point the Republicans would have to change there stance on immigration. This is because the importance of this issue seems to generally outweigh other social issues and therefore has won the liberal vote in the past. I also agree that the Democrats should focus on emphasizing their past loyalty to the Latinos and play up their stance on immigration as an incredibly important issue to them.

(1) http://ontheissues.org/Background_Immigration.htm; October 30, 2007 8:50 PM
Amanda said...: To Rachel:

Though I agree with most of what you said, I don't believe that Republicans have quite as little chance of winning the Hispanic vote as you say. It's true that with their disadvantages, the GOP is unlikely to win the majority of the Latino vote, but with the steps you list, as well as what Josh Vincent wrote in his response to your post (appealing to Cuban-Americans, mainly), they can win enough votes to change the outcome of the election. I think you are right about the status quo, however. Another thing: there was one Republican candidate, actually, who attended the meeting of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials. It's hardly worth mentioning, though, since the Republicans as a whole will need to prevent a better image to the Hispanic community in order to gain the votes they need to win the 2008 election. erall, I completely agree with your analysis of why Latinos are more likely to vote Democratic. Though the Republican party has the advantage in the area of family values, etc., they don't spin that enough in terms of appealing to Latino voters. The Democrats, on the other hand, have the upper hand in areas like immigration and social programs, as well as having a positive public image with Hispanics. Republicans don't get enough publicity with Latinos, which allows the Democratic Party to pull down the Republican image as well as boost their own.

Sources:
Rachel's post
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/07/a_problem_of_perception
www.washingtonpost.com/ wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html; October 30, 2007 9:18 PM
Anne_McNeill said...: To Amy A.

I think you make a valid point about how bush reeled in the latino vote last election and pretty much hung them out to dry when he got into office especially with his stance on immigration.
I slightly disagree with you about the issue of the democrats having trouble picking up the latino vote because i think they will vote on "who ACTUALLY did something that helped me or my family in some way while in office?" and if they were unhappy with the job of the current president they would vote other wise.; October 31, 2007 9:55 AM
TonyB said...: To Victor
From Tony
I agree with your post that Latinos will vote Democrat in this election. I’ve looked at your sources and seen the same conclusion. I disagree, however that there is even potential for the Latin American vote to go to the Republicans. Latinos have been one of the most mistreated, underappreciated groups in America, and recently there has been a run of Republican presidents (excluding Bill Clinton). In order for conservatives to catch up to liberals in the Latino vote they need to show some progress. I agree that vetoing the children’s health bill will lose some Latino votes because they are one of the more poverty-stricken groups out there. Also, the leading Republican candidates aren’t trying as hard to win the Latino vote as Democrats, so clearly the fact that there is time for the Republicans to win means nothing. I give the Republicans a .001% chance of winning the Latino vote, and that .001% chance is also the chance I give Stephen Colbert of winning the Democratic nomination.
I also agree with everything you said about the Democrats having to lose the vote, so I’m not going to argue with that paragraph. As long as the candidate doesn’t do anything stupid after being nominated they will win. As for the Republicans I agree and disagree with you. I agree that they should be doing something, but I think the first step is to do something to make it look like they care about the Latino vote. Even if it is moving the border control issue down their priority list. The Latinos viewpoints differ greatly from those of the Republicans, so other than those who want the farthest thing from Communism in America, I don’t see much opportunity for the Republicans to get many Latino votes.

1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
2. http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
3. http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/immigration/entries/2007/10/04/bushs_schip_veto_could_hurt_go.html
4. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071005/pl_afp/usvote2008clintonhispanics_071005135516; October 31, 2007 11:16 AM
Alyssa G said...: In response to Elise Gale's post...

I agree with you that the Latino and Hispanic community will most likely vote democratically. However, I disagree with some of your points as to why they will. First off, I don't believe the fact that most of the eligible voters are under the age of 24. Although statistics say that the majority under this age are more liberal, they are also the age group least likely to vote. With the combination of youth and a low voter efficacy, I believe this would make the Hispanic and Latin community less likely to vote.

In your post, I feel you failed to acknowledge what the Democratic Party has already accomplished, and everything they have done to recognize the Latin community. Although, I commend you on your point of social programs. These are a huge benefit and attraction to the Latino community.

I also disagree with you that there is room for the Republican party to gain popularity. There is some major “sucking up” the Republican party needs to do to the Hispanic Latino community. Rejecting the Univision debate, failing to include them in many programs and policies throughout the years, and their lack of reaching out to the community has hurt them hard in terms of votes from the Hispanic voters. They will need to do some major kissing up to them if they hope to win their votes.; November 04, 2007 11:04 PM
prisbaby said...: After reading Senator Obama’s statement regarding foreign policies, I supported his ideas of moving beyond Iraq, revitalizing our military and strengthening partnerships.
Senator Obama recognizes that the war in Iraq as the prominent issue pressing the nation right now when it comes to its foreign agenda. He believes it is time for the nation’s civilian leaders to acknowledge the truth that military solution cannot be impose on a civil war between the Shiites and the Sunnis. Only the leaders of these two factions can really bring peace to Iraq. The nation must bring a responsible end to the war by gradually redrawing troops from Iraq. The nation should leave behind miniscule number of troops to train and root out Al Qaeda. Redirecting the nation’s attention from Iraq will help deal with the growing problem of Iran‘s nuclear power, the resurgence of Al Qaeda, and the reinvigoration of Hamas and Hezbollah in Palestinian nations. Most importantly he believes we should strengthen and support the security of Israel, the nation's only true ally in the region. He believes the conflict between Isreal and Palestine needs to be resolve by identifying and strenthening states who are trully commited to peace, and isolating those that seek conflict and instability. There should be tougher sanctions placed on Iran to press them financially to stop their nuclear program.

Senator Obama recongnizes that American leadership in the world solidly depends on its military’s capability to ensure peace. According to the nation’s military leaders, the Marine Corps and the U.S Army are facing a crises right now. The is not a single Army unit that is capable of handling a new crisis, and the majority of the National Guards have not been prepared enough to handle a crisis. It has been weaken by the Iraq war. Obama believes when U.S troops finally leave Iraq, there should be a great revitalization in the military to prepare it for future uncertainties. He will provide our military men and women with the best equipments, armors, incentives and training. Before he sends any of our millitary men and women in harms way, he will clearly define the mission, seek out intelligence from the military leaders and make sure the military have the resources they need to combat the mission. Something that was definitely missing in this war.

Lastly Obama recognizes the effects of the war in Iraq. It has damaged the reputation and some alliances, partnerships and cooperation the United States had with many countries. Obama believes that to maintain American leadership in the world, such alliances should be renewed to with countries that will help combat the war on terrorism. He is going to do so by pursuasion and not by power. He is also going to create new alliances in the Asias and Africas by way of contributing and helping to their growth and development.

All these ideas are very similar to the ways I think the nations foreign policy should be.

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/20070701faessay86401-p30/barack-obama/renewing-american-leadership.html; November 15, 2007 2:38 PM