Chapters 6 & 10 in Edwards address the views of different groups within the electorate. Both major political parties are examining who voted for their party in 2004, and who did not vote for their party in 2004. With that information they are strategizing how to convince groups who did not vote for them to switch sides and how they can they keep groups who did vote for them in 2004.
Both parties in this election are particularly looking at the role of Latino voters.
*Do you think that the majority of Latino voters will vote Democrat or Republican in the 2008 election? Why?
*What do you think the Democrat party should do to attract Latino voters?
*What do you think the Republican party should do to attract Latino voters?
There are a lot of quality news articles on this very debate. I will help you find them if you need my help. Otherwise, I’m going to set you loose on your own.
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I think that the majority of Latino voters will vote Democratic in the 2008 presidential election. Latinos have aligned themselves with the Democratic Party ever since the election of Franklin Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy. Also the Democrats are currently treating Latinos much better than the Republicans are. Since the Republican Party has been very anti-immigrant, they have lost a lot of support from Latino voters. They also do not like the proposals that Republicans have put forth for immigration reform and other forms of legislation the hurts illegal immigrants. For example, during 1994 in California, the Republicans passed Proposition 187, which denied healthcare, welfare benefits, and education to illegal immigrants. Finally, Univision, a major Spanish-language broadcasting network, scheduled a presidential debate to be scheduled in mid-September. All except one of the Democratic candidates agreed to participate in the debate, but only one Republican, John McCain, agreed to participate in the debate (1). These are just a few of the reasons why the majority of Latino voters will vote Democrat in the upcoming election.
I think that the Democratic Party should keep doing what it’s doing to attract Latino voters. They are taking advantage of the fact that the Republicans are losing Latino voters because of their stance on the issue of illegal immigration. Clinton has been going out of her way to talk, meet, and get involved with Latinos. She knows that the Latino vote will be very important in the upcoming presidential election. This is why not only her but the Democratic Party in general is doing everything they can to connect to the Latino community (2). This is a major reason why the Democratic National Convention is being held in Denver, Colorado this year. Colorado is seen as a swing state in this election because of its high number of Latino voters (1).
I think that the Republican Party needs to change a few things in order to attract Latino voters. First, they need to embrace the Latino community like the Democrats are doing. They can’t continue to turn down offers of appearing for debates on Univision, or talking and meeting with Latinos at rallies or in person. This is causing the Latino community to feel like they are being ignored by the Republicans. They also need to change their stances on illegal immigration, immigration reform, and stop pushing bills and laws through Congress that hurt illegal immigrants. Ideally, Latinos would be much more attracted to the Republican Party because of their values on family and religion, but because of Republicans stance on illegal immigration, they are pushing away a major voting community (3).
(1)http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
index.html?iref=newssearch
(2)http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfYbPLF
UmEw-IoEVUUVfPR7wRShQ
(3)http://www.columbusdispatch.com/live/content/
local_news/stories/2007/10/07/Latino.ART_ART_10-07-07_A1_9N84AGA.html?sid=101
I also believe that the majority of Latino voters will vote Democrat in the 2008 election. A recent USA TODAY poll indicated that, according to the sample used, Latinos are 3 times more likely to consider themselves Democrats than Republicans. Not only that, but when the same people were asked which potential candidate they would support in the 2008 election, an overwhelming 59% chose Hillary Clinton. According to the USA TODAY article, this is because of the Republicans’ stance on immigration and some of the remarks made about illegal immigrants that have offended the Latino community (1).
I think that the Democrats are doing a good job of appealing to this particular group. When the potential Democratic candidates were invited to speak for the NALEO (National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials) this Saturday, every single one of them accepted the offer. When the Republican contenders were asked the same question, they all declined (1). If they just continue to do what they are already doing, I think they will win a large percentage of the Latino vote. The head of the Hispanic Voter Project at Johns Hopkins University says that the Democrats “have a huge advantage” (3).
The Republicans need to do a lot more if they want to have any chance of attracting voters from the Latino community. As of now, only 11% of Hispanic voters call themselves Republican, and there is still time for that percentage to continue to decrease. “I cannot understand how a Hispanic person could vote Republican,” says one member of the Latino community. One thing that does look good to Latino voters is the Republican stance on family values, though I don’t think that will be enough to persuade most voters. Florida Senator Mel Martinez says that “it would be virtually impossible” for a Republican to win the election with such low levels of Hispanic support (1). To gain more Hispanic support before the 2008 election, the Republican Party would almost have to change their opinion on immigration. This could actually be detrimental because while gaining Hispanic votes, they would probably lose the votes of the more conservative (2). The CNN article says that to balance the interest of an anti-immigrant constituency with the interests of the Latino voter isn’t really a possibility (3).
In summary, I believe that the majority of Latinos will cast their vote for a Democrat in the upcoming election, as indicated by numerous polls and comments by voters. The biggest reasons for this is the Republican stance on immigration, and the fact that the Democrats are simply doing a better job of campaigning in the Hispanic community.
1.http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-06-27-hispanics-dems-cover_N.htm
2.http://hola-america.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=188&Itemid=2
3.http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/index.html
Both of you (Molly & John) did a great job starting this discussion! Good job citing your sources & offering concrete examples of what each party can do & has done for Latino support.
I think that the majority of Hispanic and Latino voters will be Democratic in the next election. This is because most Latinos are Catholic and have benefited from Democrat-sponsored social programs in the past. Also, the majority of Hispanics eligible to vote are under the age of 24 (1). This age group is naturally more liberal, and will fuel the Democratic party.
There are many steps the Democrats can take to attract Latino voters. Because many Latinos naturally would favor the Democratic party, it is important to encourage voting in communities and on television. It is also important to demonstrate where the Republican party has failed to help Latinos, like with Proposition 187 in California. This piece of legislation was founded by Republicans and limited the welfare and educational benefits available to illegal immigrants (2). If the Democrats can continue to produce appealing programs for Latinos and encourage young, first-time voters, they will have a strong chance of winning this ethnic vote.
It will be a difficult road for the Republicans if they intend to win the Latino vote. First, they must make more appearances in the Hispanic community. They have been invited to numerous debates and conferences, but rarely ever attend. For example Univision was forced to cancel a debate because only one Rupublican candidate wanted to attend. There are many areas where Latinos would be interested in Republican policy, but they rarely have the chance to hear it (2). Many Hispanics in the southwest are against illegal immigration because their families have lived in America for generations (3). In addtion, the number of evangelical Hispanics is increasing and would be able to contribute to the party without any major compromises (2).
In conclusion, Hispanics are mostly Democrats, but there is room for the Republican party to gain popularity.
Sources:
1.http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
2.http://usinfo.state.gov/xarchives/display.html?p=washfile-english&y=2007&m=October&x=20071011113828esnamfuak0.9106256&chanlid=democracy
3.http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/10/latino_voters_and_immigration.html
While both parties have recognized the increasing impact of the Latino vote, I think that most Latino voters will support the Democrats in the 2008 election. Although the Republicans have made some attempts to attract votes, the Democrats support the issues that are generally important to the Latino community and are currently leading the polls in the Latino vote (1).
Latino voters have traditionally supported the Democratic Party, as have most minority groups, because of their stances in immigration, affirmative action, and general support of government programs helping immigrants and minorities. Lately, the Democratic candidates have been going even further to reach out to the Hispanic community. This September, they did a debate on a Spanish-language television station where they addressed reforming the immigration system and America’s view of Latino immigrants. Moreover, they criticized President Bush and the Republican Party, blaming them for creating negative feelings towards immigrants. They also blamed the Republicans for the failure of the Immigration Bill to pass, even though many Republicans, such as John McCain, helped create the bill and some Democrats aided the Republicans who shut it down (2).
But the Democratic candidates have gone father than the issue of immigration to appeal to the Latino voters. Hillary Clinton is a leading example; a NY Times/CBS News poll indicates that she is supported by sixty percent of Hispanic Democrats. She has already hired her own advisers and pollsters to focus exclusively on the Latino population (2). The other Democratic candidates are less known amongst the Latino crowd, but are also making steps towards appealing to them. Both Senator Dodd and Governor Richardson (a Latino himself) are fluent in the Spanish language and are using it to their advantage (1).
I think that overall, the Democratic Party is doing a good job of attracting Latino voters. If they continue to support immigration reforms and reach out to the Latino community like the presidential candidates have been, I think that they will capture the majority of the Latino votes.
The Republicans, on the other hand, are not attracting as many Hispanic votes. Their support from Latinos has decreased from 44% in the 2004 presidential election to only 26% in the 2006 congressional election. This has partially been attributed to the effort to build a wall along the U.S./Mexican border (2). Despite this, the Republican Party has also been trying to gain Latino support.
As a few people noted already, many Latinos share the same values of the Republican Party, namely traditional family values, hard work, and religion (3). The Republicans have also created a Hispanic Team to concentrate on Hispanic voters and extended their website to include a Spanish version (3). I do not know how much more the Republicans can do to try to appeal to Latino voters since their many of their general views conflict with those of Latinos. Unless they change some of their principle views, I do not think that they will gain much support in the long run. As of now, I think that they could gain more support by following the Democrats by publicly reaching out to the Hispanic community. They could also emphasize the areas of their party that appeal to Latinos, namely moral values. Even so, I do not think that it would be possible for Republicans to win the majority of Latino votes without changing their key issues stances.
1)http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9401E2DD1739F933A2575AC0A9619C8B63
2)http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/10/us/politics/10hispanics.html?pagewanted=2
3)
http://www.gop.com/Teams/Hispanic/
I believe that the Democratic party should continue what they’re doing to attract Latino voters. They have shown a deep interest and commitment to the Latino/Hispanic community. As one article put it, the Democratic candidates know how to “court Latino voters.” (1) One way the Democrats have shown interest in the Latino population is by scheduling the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado; a state with a large and growing Hispanic population. (1) Many of the candidates for the Democratic nominee have Spanish-language options on their campaign web sites. The Democratic nominees agreed to appear on Univision debate scheduled in mid-September, whereas the Republican candidates failed to sign up.
The Republicans need to improve their tactics to attract the Latino voters. I think they can all agree that they need the votes, but they are doing a poor job of appealing to the Hispanic/Latino community. The only Republican candidate to agree to the Univision debate was Sen. John McCain, but he dropped out after the others failed to sign-up. (2) This lack of attention to the community sends an ill message to the Latino and Hispanic voters. Many Hispanic Evangelicals appeal to the Republican party and many Latino/Hispanic voters agree with the Republican party on their policies toward Cuba. (3) If the Republican party pushes these two areas, that could help them a lot in the polls with the Latino voters.
I believe that Latino/Hispanic voters will be more likely to vote Democratic this election. Although Latino’s have voted Democratic in the past, some experts say that they are still the wild card voters. (3) I agree that the Latino voter’s are vital to the 2008 election, but I always believe that they will more likely be voting for a Democratic nominee. The Democrats have shown much more interest, time, energy, and commitment to the Latino/Hispanic community. They have put the effort into making the Latino community believe they are a part of America and helping the Hispanic/Latino voters know that their voice counts.
(1)http://abcnews.go.com/Politics
/Decision2008/storyid=3565816&page=1
(2)http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09
/28/hispanic.vote/index.html?iref=newssearch
(3)http://www.alternet.org/story
/65195/?page=2
I think the majority of Latino voters will vote for the Democrats in the 2008 election. While there still may be enough time for the Republicans to pick up ground (1) (2), it appears that their past policy and campaigning by the Democrats will help the Democrats secure the Latino vote. Republican candidates have skipped major Latino events (1) while President Bush has also recently vetoed a bill that would expand the State Children’s Health Insurance Program. The bill would have helped thousands of Latinos who lack private health insurance and will likely hurt the Republicans even more (3). Also, major Democratic candidates have been starting to court Latino voters, including Hilary Clinton (4) and Barack Obama (5). Not to mention the fact that Democratic candidate Bill Richardson is Hispanic (6). With all this happening, I feel that the Latino vote is the Democrats to lose.
I think the Democratic Party needs to keep their campaigning for Latinos strong and not say or do anything dumb. Latinos have historically voted for Democrats (2), and the Republicans keep doing things that hurt there position with the Latinos (3) (6). However, the Democrats cannot feel too comfortable with the Latino vote as there is still a possibility that they could lose the vote (1). However, it doesn’t appear like the leading Democratic candidates are taking the Latino vote for granted, as they are campaigning hard for the Latino vote (4) (5) (6). Given that the Latino vote could make the difference in certain swing states, this makes sense (2). Also, the Democratic Party may want to try and diversify their campaigning for the Latino vote. As the fastest growing minority group, Latinos have different interests from one another based on where they live and what country they originate from. Therefore, the Democrats may have to widen their campaign for Latinos as not all of them share the same beliefs (2).
The Republicans have shown the ability to attract Latino voters in the past (2). However, they appear to be in a difficult position given the fact that candidates have skipped major Latino events (1) and that President Bush vetoed legislation that would have helped Latinos (3). I believe the Republicans should focus on the kinds of Latinos that match up with their party beliefs. It will likely be too hard to attract all the Latino voters, especially given the Republican’s anti-immigrant stance. Despite this, there are Latinos with certain beliefs that can be swayed to the Republican side. For example, one of the articles gives the example that Cuban-Americans may be interested in voting for Republicans given the Republican’s policies towards Cuba (2). If the Republicans can target enough of these voters and make up enough ground, they may be able to make it so the Latino vote does not swing the election in favor of the Democrats.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
2. http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
3. http://www.statesman.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/austin/immigration/entries/2007/10/04/bushs_schip_veto_could_hurt_go.html
4. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20071005/pl_afp/usvote2008clintonhispanics_071005135516
5. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/la-na-obama21oct21,1,3260539.story
6. http://www.economist.com/world/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9832877
I believe that the Latinos will overwhelmingly vote for the Democrats. Not only do the Democrats have a Latino candidate running for the Democratic nomination, Bill Richardson, but they also connect with the Latino voters on deeper levels (1). Meanwhile the Republicans have been turning many Latinos away with their anti-immigration policy. Additionally, the Latino population is growing, especially in the southwest. One article speculated that if the Democrats were able to get these votes, they might be able to take some of the southwest states from the Republicans (2). Even though the speculation from this article is old, the same theory holds true. If Democrats could mobilize the Latinos, they might gain a few more electoral votes, enough reason for Democrats to pursue Latinos in the upcoming election.
The Democrats are much more Latino friendly than the Republicans. Most new immigrants, if they register to vote, register as Democrats (3). In the news just recently, Obama was defending the rights of illegal immigrant students to receive financial aid for college, a bill that California governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger vetoed (4). Though Clinton has a higher rate among Latino voters, Obama is an example of Democratic candidates trying to woo the Latino voters. To attract Latino voters all the Democrats have to do is point at the Republicans immigration stance. Furthermore, the Latino voters have been a part of the Democrat party since FDR and are unlikely to switch parties at this point in time. As long as the Democrats look as if they will do something for the Latinos, the Latinos will vote for them.
The Republicans are frustrating Latino voters with their stance on immigration. Just last Friday, Senator Mel Martinez quit his post as general chairman of the GOP committee. Martinez, the highest ranking Latino official, quit because he was frustrated with the party’s debate on immigration. Martinez’s resignation sends a sign that the Republican Party is not willing to help Latinos and shows the party’s failure in reaching out to Latino voters. Republicans are afraid that Latinos will feel that they are unwelcome in the Republican Party. The GOP’s base believes that to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants would compromise the Party’s values, while others believe that they must try to reach out to Latinos because of their growth as a minority (3). The Republicans would have to break on their position of immigration to be able to gain more Latino voters, something which they are highly unlikely to do. Furthermore, the Republicans would have to broaden their base to seem as a more diverse party and a party that will cater to the Latinos’ needs. Until the Republicans change some of their major stances, which they will not do in fear of losing their main base, Latinos will continue to vote Democratic.
Sources:
1. http://www.richardsonforpresident.com/about_bill/
2. http://www.thenation.com/doc/20040105/cobble
3. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-martinez20oct20,1,6379183.story?track=rss&ctrack=1&cset=true
4. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama21oct21,1,2342301.story?track=rss&ctrack=2&cset=true
I expect that the majority of Latinos to vote Democratic this presidential election. Hispanics have traditionally leaned Democratic, though some argue that they're breaking away from the Democratic line and increasingly becoming swing voters [1]. In recent elections, the Republican party has been slowly gathering support from an increasing segment of the Latino population, cumulating in 2004, when Bush garnered 40-44% of the Latino vote in the presidential election [2]. However, this trend may be subject to reversal.
The actions of the Bush administration regarding issues important to Hispanics have served to alienate the Latino vote; he essentially reneged on his campaign promises on issues important to Latinos, such as improving US-Latin American relations [3].
This is compounded by the actions of current GOP candidates in snubbing the Latino community by almost unanimously rejecting invitations to public forums sponsored by Latino-based groups [3]. In addition, the anti-immigration legislation proposed by restrictionists and recent local anti-immigration ordinances have resulted in all Latinos, including US citizens, feeling targeted [3].
In contrast, the Democratic party has attempted to reach out to the Latino vote through tactics such as the Univision debate, where the candidates conducted a debate on a Spanish-language channel with translators [2]. While they could be doing more to reach out to the population, their current tactics are enough to net them the majority of the vote. The GOP is also aiding them on that front, by driving Hispanic votes away from them on the topic of immigration.
The GOP needs to recognize the increasing importance of the Hispanic vote, especially in swing states with a large Hispanic population, such as New Mexico, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona [2]. To gain more of the Hispanic vote, they need to emphasize their stances on social issues to the Hispanic, the one major policy area where they agree with Latinos, and take a less hostile stance on immigration policies. However, they need to make sure that they aren't alienating the anti-immigration segment of the electorate either, which normally leans conservative.
[1] http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2007Jan09/0,4670,HispanicVoters,00.html
[2] http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
[3] http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
Hispanics are one of the largest minority groups in the United States. It is expected that about 17 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in the 2008 Presidential Election. In 2000 it was reported that about 35% of the Latino vote went to Bush. Some of the biggest issues for the Latino population are biggest education, jobs, health care, the war in Iraq, and immigration. I believe that in the upcoming election that the Latino vote will go to the Democratic Party. I believe this is because that as Liberals more programs will be promised by the government that could benefit the Latino population. With help in education, health are, jobs and immigration issues Latinos will give the vote to the side with the most support in all areas.
Republicans and Democrats both need to look at what they can do to capture the Latino vote since it will be one of the major deciding factors in the 2008 presidential election. Demarcates can add more government support programs that will influence health care and education. Republicans have a harder time because they tend to state that the Government should not be as involved but without that money that the government funded programs can give it is much harder to make promises on what the Republicans can do to gain the Latino vote. Programs to help with education, healthcare, immigration issues need to be formed.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
http://usinfo.state.gov/dhr/Archive/2004/Feb/18-514070.html
I think that in this coming presidential election the majority of Latino voters will vote for the Democratic Party. In the past, most Latinos’ votes have gone to the Democratic candidate. It seems highly unlikely that this trend would change on an election where many people are feeling more and more alienated by the Republican Party due to it’s stance on The War in Iraq among other things. The Republican party has been extremely unclear in it’s intentions in regards to immigration because of the division in the party. Also, if voters are indeed voting for which candidate would help them most, they would be better off voting Democratic. The Democratic party has always appealed more to the minorities and those discriminated against in the United States, whether it is people who are Irish, Jewish, or Hispanic. Indeed, in the 2006 elections Republicans only received 30% of Latinos’ votes. The Democratic party also supports many more social programs that could benefit members of the Latino community.
However, it certainly seems that in ways, the Republican party is trying to win the Latino vote. The Department of Justice’s Voting Section, according to some, is turning away from defending the rights of minorities that are more likely to vote Democratic and focusing on minorities considered to be “swing votes”, like Latinos and the elderly. Tanner, the main person in charge of overseeing voter rights for the Department of Justice, also offended many minorities by saying, “ Minority voters are less likely to be impacted than senior citizens by voter I.D. laws because they tend to have shorter life spans.” Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, among other candidates, has tried to win the Latino vote by speaking in support of affirmative action and immigration reform.
Clearly, in this coming election, both parties are hoping to receive the votes of Latinos. Despite the Republican Party’s attempts to win their votes, in all likely hood the Democratic candidate will win the majority of Latino voters’ votes.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-obama21oct21,1,482040.story?coll=la-news-politics-national
http://www.alternet.org/rights/65749/
Like any other vote, the Latino community's vote can only be harnessed by politicians who reach out and make a strong effort to appeal to the people and their beliefs. In the the 2008 election, I strongly believe that the Democratic party will be able to gain the confidence and support of the Latino community, which when utilized to its greatest potential, can playa key role in the ultimate success or failure of a party during election time. I base my opinion on three issues given political importance during an election: immigration reform, education, and social welfare programs. I believe that the Democratic party will be able to take advantage of their positions on these issues and successfully win over the majority of the Latino community.
Like most of the American population, the Latinos' ancestors were immigrants. The physical nearness of Mexico, Central America, and South America demonstrates a direct connection to the effects of immigration. According to a Zogby International Report given to the National Council of La Raza, there is "strong agreement [within the Latino community]... that undocumented immigrants that who have lived, worked, and paid taxes in the U.S. should be provided a path to U.S. citizenship" (1). In addition, the same document reported that of all issues, immigration was ranked as the third most important item in 2004 to registered Latino voters(1). Because Democrats are more likely to have a more sympathetic (instead of offensive) view on immigration, they are more likely to gain the support of the Latino community in this aspect.
Education is a second item that is given importance within both the Democratic party and the Latino community. As reported by Zogby International, 70% of the Latino community believes that too little money is being spent on education(1). Only 6% believed that too much money was being spent, and 16% felt that the right amount was being spent(1). An overwhelming 98% voted that a college education was of high importance with the community, a figure that demonstrates a tie back to the younger constituents of the population, who have been historically underrepresented (1). If the Democrats were able to persuade the younger population within and outside of the Latino community to vote Democratic, they would have a strong grip on a substantial amount of beneficial votes.
Historically, the Democratic party has been a strong supporter of social welfare programs that benefit parts of the population that need it most. Like the Democratic party, the Latino community has also tended to support these programs, as many within the community have benefited from the programs in the past or status quo. As stated by Zogby International, three-fifths (62%) of the Latino community agreed most with the statement of "I would rather pay higher taxes to support a government that provides more services"(1). Only 28% of the population agreed more with paying lower taxes for less government services(1). Concerning health care, 72% of the Latino community reported that "getting health insurance coverage to pay for medical expenses" was a big problem (1). Providing similar statistics, 79% of those who identify themselves as Democrat are likely to view getting health care as difficult, as opposed to 57% of Republicans.
If Democrats are able to dedicate substantial time, effort, and resources to gearing their positions on immigration, education, and social welfare programs towards the Latino community, they will have an easier time gaining their vote. Although believed to be social conservatives, Latinos aren't necessarily going to vote according to that pattern (2). And although to be staunch Catholics, a growing number of Latinos are converting to Protestantism, a figure that disproves the former commonly-held belief (3). For this reason and the one stated before, Democrats have a good chance at winning over the Latino vote in the 2008 election.
In my opinion, the largest thing that the Republican party can do is to cooperate with Democrats to pass legislation that appeals to the Latino community. Then, when Latinos ask, "What have you done for me lately", Republicans can reference an appeasing piece of legislation which supports their party. This action has the potential to gain many swing voters, who might hold that particular piece of legislation at great importance. This "Latin Swing" has great potential to decide upcoming elections(3). As Latinos become a greater part of their electorate, their ability to influence elections is also growing. In addition, working to increase voting participation by the Latino groups that support them can also gain the party some important votes(3). For example, sponsoring voter registration drives within smaller Latino communities (such as staunch Roman Catholics who are more likely to vote for pro-life and family-geared positions) will help to get more Republican Latinos voting in the election.
My sources:
1. http://www.puente-latino.com/resources.php (scroll down until the link for "Hispanic Perspective" under "Who is the Latino Voter". This is a pdf file.
2. http://www.alternet.org/election04/19485/
3. http://www.vianovo.com/english/news/fromourdesk/2001_1203.htm
In regards to the 2008 election, I believe the majority of Latinos will vote for the Democratic candidate. I believe this for many reasons including their past voting patterns and the present issues being debated.
First of all, changes in demographic voting generally take place somewhat gradually and since the 2004 election data show only 40% of Latinos voting for Bush it is unlikely a drastic change will occur by the next election (1). Also, throughout history the Democrats have traditionally provided more aid and government programs to low-income families and minority groups which have assisted the Latinos. For example, when the Republican-supported Proposition 187 was passed in California in 1994 outlawing health care, education and welfare to illegal immigrants, the Latinos preference for the Democrats was further cemented (2). Another reason to suppose the majority of the Latino votes will go to the Democratic candidate is the issue of immigration that is currently being debated by both parties. Senator Mel Martinez actually resigned recently from his post in the GOP due to his strong disagreement with the Republicans approach on this issue (1). Lionel Sosa, a longtime Republican presidential advisor remarked, "Mel Martinez was a symbol of the party's outreach to Latinos, and that seems to be disappearing. It is not a good day for Latino Republicans, that's for sure (1)."
There are various things the parties can do to secure the Latino vote in the upcoming election. The Democrats should continue to emphasis their stance on immigration and use it against the Republicans. Republicans on the other hand should play up their views on entrepreneurship and various fiscal policies in order to attract more Latino votes (2). Both parties can benefit from reaching out to Latino interest groups and societal organizations but only the Democrats seem to be currently using this to their full advantage. In September, only one Republican candidate agreed to participate in a debate sponsored by Univision, a popular Spanish broadcast network, while all but one Democratic candidate showed up for the debate (2).
Overall I believe that the historical loyalty to the Democratic party combined with the issue of immigration will allow the Democrats confidence in gaining the majority of the Latino votes.
(1) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-martinez20oct20,1,165940.story?coll=la-news-politics-national
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
I think that the Latino vote is likely to be mostly Democratic. Democrats have historically reached out to minority groups much more than the Republicans have. Also, the Republican Party's stance on immigration is likely to alienate many Latino voters, who see racist undertones to their policies. Whether or not they are correct, this will no doubt affect the way they view the Republican Party.
Democrats are also doing a better job at reaching out to Latino voters in this election in particular. Republican candidates have refused invitations to participate in events like the convention of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials. A first ever Spanish-language presidential debate scheduled on Univision had to be cancelled when only McCain agreed to participate. If Republicans do not try to get out the Latino vote, most voters will probably default to the Democratic Party.
Events like immigration raids and proposals such as a fence at the U.S./Mexico border have alienated Latino voters. Although Republican proponents say that they are only trying to enforce immigration laws, legal immigrants also feel targeted, making them less likely to vote Democratic.
If the Republicans emphasize values such as opposition to gay marriage and legalized abortion, they may win the votes of some social conservatives. Many Latinos are Catholic, and Catholics are usually social conservatives. However, issues such as immigration and the Iraq War will probably come first in most voters' minds.
Republican candidates seem to have mostly given up on the Latino vote in the face of opposition to their immigration policies.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfYbPLFUmEw-IoEVUUVfPR7wRShQ
Forgot:
Both parties should try and appeal to Latino voters by emphasizing policies that Latinos as a whole tend to agree with. Things like appearing on Spanish-language TV channels and eating in Mexican restaurants (seriously...Clinton is doing this) help candidates appear friendlier. I think supporting harsh immigration legislation is probably political suicide when seeking the Latino vote. The Republicans clearly have an uphill battle with this, but they could make some headway by emphasizing so-called "moral issues" as Bush did in 2004.
~This is Kendra.
The CNN explains that this might have hurt the Republicans because Univision had a presidential debate in mid-September and all but one Democrats showed up. From the Republican side...only John Mccain wanted to some. Now the Democrats have the upper hand in the 2008 elections with the Latino vote. I never really thought that Latino voters could make that much of a difference. After reading the the CNN article I was convinced on how crucial the Latino vote is. This article explains that, "The change in the electorate could play a significant role in possible swing states like Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and Florida during the 2008 election. There's a reason the Democratic Party decided to hold its presidential convention in Denver" and also that "For example, a Cuban-American may vote Republican because of the GOP's long-standing policies toward Cuba, whereas a Puerto Rican voter in New York City or a voter in a border state may be driven by different motives.The culture of a state can also affect a Hispanic voter's behavior. A voter in Texas may be more conservative, whereas a voter with a similar background in California may be more liberal" (1). They really are the swing vote in the election and think it has to do with how much help either party has offered to this large population. An AFP article explains that the Republicans did not do much for the Latinos and they were the ones pushing for a tough crackdown on immigration (2). Because of this lack of interest, Hilary Clinton one of the top contenders for the Democratic nomination, is really campaigning for the Latino vote. She and her staff eat in Mexican restaurants, her staff organizes different functions with Latino voters and she specifically said that, " the United States is "stronger because of our diversity"" (2). The AFP article makes the argument that the immigration debate has poisoned the field for the conservatives. Many Latinos are not taken seriously by the Republicans. However, the Democrats are not free of fault. Sen Barack Obama chose not to come to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute debate which was one of the bigger debates the Latino community put together. President Bush talked to Latino voters and spoke their language. He talked about family values, and "compassionate conservatism". But now the Republicans are pushing for an immigration bill and there are more immigration raids than ever (3) and people from the Hispanic community are starting to scratch their heads because they are realizing that President Bush just wanted votes. Latino voters do not feel welcome into the republican party and that is only because the Republicans are not doing a very good job appealing to this large part of the population (4). Because of this lack of interest from the Republican party the Latino head of the RNC has resigned because he believed that he was not welcome to the party. He believes that not courting the Latino part will destroy the party and that to me sounds as if the Democrats are winning the Latino vote (4). The last article that I read talked about Sen. Barack Obama courting the Latinos in LA. He apologizes for the veto on the Dream Act that would help children of illegal immigrants. He believes that children of immigrants deserve the education (5). Therefore, I think that the Democrats are doing a fine job appealing to the Latino voters but I think the Republicans are not doing very well at all. They should really appear at Latino functions and even though they are pushing for an immigration bill that does not favor the immigrants they should at least try to help them into other issues. I really do think that Latinos are going to vote for the Democrats in this election just becayse the Republicans are not paying attention to them.
1)http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
2)http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfYbPLFUmEw-IoEVUUVfPR7wRShQ
3)http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
4)http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-martinez20oct20,1,165940.story?coll=la-news-politics-national
5)http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-obama21oct21,1,482040.story?coll=la-news-politics-national
The vote of the Latinos is one being seriously pursued by all candidates in the 2008 election. Statistics show that the Latino ethnic group has the fastest growing number for voter turnout in the country. Before February 5, 2008, 80% of Hispanic voters will have had the chance to vote for a presidential nominee in the primaries. They are now realizing how much power they can truly have if the community were to stand together and vote for a candidate that best represents them. However, neither party has come out as a favorite for this group of people.
I believe that the Latinos will vote in favor of the democrats in the 2008 presidential election. The biggest issue for the majority of the Latinos is immigration reform. They are concerned with workplace raids, racial profiling and discrimination, and the lack of immigration reform that went on during the Bush administration. The Latinos are looking for an equal opportunity in America's economy and a place where they can be successful. In general, the Democratic Party has appealed to the Latino group because of their strong belief in government programs and funding to help people in need.
In order to maintain the vote of the Latinos, the Democratic Party is going to have to continue to stress their belief of immigration reform. This reform (documented at the last party convention) would include the belief of full participation for those who pay taxes and have been cleared in a background check, efficient family reunification, and more government funded citizen and English language classes. These reforms would greatly please the Latino community and would be a great start on what they look for in a party that they wish to represent them. If the Democratic Party were to focus on the Latinos and what they have to say about immigration reform, then the democrats would definitely gain their vote and a greater chance at the presidency.
The republicans have a somewhat harder job in what they need to do to gain the vote of the Latinos. Their initial plan in 2004 for immigration reform was to set up temporary workers programs in order to encourage legal participation in the country. The republicans also believe in greater border control, promoting incentives for temporary workers to return to their home countries, and the protection of rights of the legal immigrants while not unfairly rewarding those immigrants who are not legal. This stance on immigration reform will not cut it for the Latinos. I believe that they would take greater security of the borders as a way for the US government to keep out as many immigrants (especially from Mexico) as possible and make it harder to come to the US. So in order to gain the Latino trust and vote, the republicans would need to appeal to the reforms the Latinos are looking for from the next presidential administration. This may include more government funding for immigrants, legislation protecting the rights of Latinos and promising an equal opportunity to all Latinos in the near future.
Right now the vote of the Latinos could sway either way in the 2008 election, but there is no doubt that either way they vote will have a major impact on the election.
www.alternet.org/story/65195/?page=2
www.coxwashington.com
www.democrats.org
www.GOP.com
Michelle Howard
I believe that Latinos will lean democratic in this election. In the past democrats have gotten the most done for Latinos and all things considered gave most attention to them, this allegiance was started under FDR and JFK and cemented when conservatives started to push proposition 187 that denied healthcare to illegal immigrants. (1) President Bush made strides with Latinos by pushing roads towards citizenship however the GOP may have lost any support it had gained by rejecting these attempts.
All this being said the Republicans are not down and out. I believe the Republicans can win the Latino vote if they play their cards right. A growing number of Latinos are beginning to identify themselves as evangelical and they find themselves identifying with the Republican Party. (2) Also, middleclass affluent Latinos tend to agree with conservative ideology so Republicans must highlight this ideology to appeal to that piece of their demographic. (1) But, I do think for the GOP to win national support from the remaining Latinos they must, like President Bush proposed, make a path to citizenship for many illegal immigrant Latinos.
I believe that for Democrats to win the Latino vote they must do a few simple things. I think a great number of the Latino votes can be won by highlighting track records. First I would highlight the leaps and bounds made for Latinos by presidents Roosevelt and Kennedy. It is under these presidents that the Latinos began to rally for the Democrats. I would also highlight Proposition 187 in which mainly republicans pushed to deny immigrants healthcare. I would also highlight the GOP’s stance on immigration seeing as most of the population is first or second generation immigration is a hot button issue for them. By simply reminding Latinos where their loyalty has been in the past and which party generally gets the most done for them I believe that Democrats can win a large amount of the Latino electorate.
(1)http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/index.html?iref=newssearch
(2)
http://hola-america.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=188&Itemid=2
I believe that a majority of Latino voters will vote Democratic in the 2008 election. The Republican Party has tried to shift their focus after the results of the 2006 election showed that 70% of Latino voters supported Democrats. The appointment of Florida Senator Mel Martinez as the Republican National Committee's leader in late 2006 is evidence of the Republicans' attempt at attracting the Latino vote(1). In the past few years, however, Latinos have voted mainly Democratic, although a few years were close to 50/50, namely when President Bush received 40-44% of their vote in the 2004 election(1).
I believe that the Republican Party can only hope that Latinos will favor their traditional family values and faith-based views. Many Latinos oppose abortion rights, but the common Republican stance on immigration may turn away many Latinos from the Party(2). The fact that some Republicans say "that you and people like you are the biggest problem facing the country (meaning Latino immigrants)," will not help them gain the Latino vote(2). If the Republicans have any hope of swinging Latinos back to their side, their current stance on immigration must be eliminated.
The Democrats should not need to change much in their political stances to continue to attract Latino voters. Over the past few years, Latinos have voted more and more for the Democratic Party. As stated before, last year 70% of Latinos voted for Democrats. A survey by the Washington Post back in 2004 showed that many Latinos supported John Kerry and the Democratic Party for president because they were dissatisfied with the war in Iraq and the economy(3). The Democrats just need to stick strong to their platform and encourage the American Latino population to vote.
(1):http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061114/14latinos.htm
(2):http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=gop_candidates_alienate_latino_voters
(3):http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A3368-2004Jul21.html
Hispanics are the fastest growing and largest population in the United States at the moment, meaning that the Hispanic vote will be crucial to any candidate hoping to win the upcoming presidential election. I believe that a large amount of the Latino population will vote Democrat as they have in the past. The Democratic Party supports more government aid based programs and immigration laws than the Republican Party. In July of 2007 the Republican Party opposed many immigration reforms that were trying to be passed. (edition.com)The bill would have provided citizenship to many Hispanic immigrants, and the debate surely had a negative effect for the Republicans.
“The Democrats said pro-immigrant stuff, and even if they didn’t support it, it was because they said it wasn’t good enough. The Republicans said anti-immigrant stuff and so now they are going to get killed with this”, stated Antonio Gonzalez. The Republicans anti immigrant stance will make the Democrat platform ever more attractive for the Hispanic Community.
"Democrats are clearly delivering on their promise to expand opportunity and increase college affordability by passing this landmark legislation for all young people, and especially minority groups...”
As seen in the above statement (Hispanic Caucus Chair Shamil Rodriguez), the Democratic Party has also attempted to provide more educational opportunities for Hispanics. They sent legislation to Congress asking for an increase in Pell Grants, a decrease in interest rates on need based loans, and $200 million dollars to be allotted for Hispanic Servicing institutions. (democrats.org)The Democrats support of education for Hispanics is also attractive to that community.
In the presidential election of 2004 the Republican Party was able to snag a large amount of the Latino vote. Bush walked away with 40-44% of the vote in o4’(CNN.com)I believe that the past blunders of the Republican Party ( war in Iraq, tax cuts, etc) have made many voters, even those who are long term Republicans, rethink voting for the party. A lot of blame has been placed on the Republican Party (especially with the war) which deters many from voting Republican.
As stated above, the Republicans did make huge gains in the 04 election when it came to the Hispanic population. The Democrats must convince more of the Hispanic population to see how their policies would benefit the Latino community. Democrats are doing key things to attract the Republican Latino. One example is that the Democratic convention will be held in Denver for the presidential election. By hosting the convention in Colorado the Democrats will be made more visible and tangible to the large Latino population located there. They are also appealing to those in states like Florida where the Latino vote is traditionally Republican. Democrats offer Spanish on their websites to be made accessible to Latinos. In September a large majority of the Democratic nominees participated in a debate which focused on only Latino issues (ABC News). Providing forums of discussions and debate that focus entirely on the Latino community is a smart way for the Democrat to appeal to the Latino voter.
As said by Martines- chair of the National Republican Party, “We’ve got our work cut out for us...I consider it serious.” The Republican Party must retract its stance on immigration policies if they hope to gain a large amount of the Hispanic vote. The legislation passed against immigration reform repelled many Hispanics. If the Republicans can appeal to this immigrant dominated party they may be able to capture more votes. As stated in an article in the Times- Herald Record, “If Republican candidates don't come up with some new, broad, comprehensive immigration policy, and unless they stop further alienating the people they need for a winning coalition, then you can kiss the party goodbye.” The Republicans must make some reforms if they hope to capture the Latino vote.
http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/index.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/01/us/politics/01immig.html?_r=2&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Decision2008/story?id=3565816
The Latino population is possibly the most significant minority group in political elections. They are a rapidly growing minority with one of the highest voter turnout rates among registered voters (1). Although Latinos have been relatively unaligned in the past, I think it is much more likely that the Latino population will generally vote Democratic in the 2008 election.
Latinos are widely known for their Catholic roots. 70% of Latinos are strictly Catholic, while 23% are still some variation of Christianity apart from Catholic (1). Knowing this, I initially thought that Latinos would tend to vote more Republican because of domestic policy issues like abortion and gay marriage. However, 76% of Latino Catholics voted for Kerry in the 2004 election regardless of his stances on these controversial issues (1).
In the 2004 election, President Bush received more support from Latino voters than any other Republican presidential candidate. Although Kerry ended with the majority of the Latino population’s vote, he did not win by much. Kerry only won by about 9% over Bush, holding a 53% against Bush’s 44% (1). Ultimately, religion played a somewhat small role in the voter’s decisions. According to Gaston Espinosa, a professor of religious studies, voting is “more about ethnicity than religion”. The Republican Party and Catholic Church share similar grounds on issues of morality, but more social values are shared with the Catholic Church and the Democratic Party, he says (1). The Republican Party as a whole is historically known and frequently referenced as the “rich, white party”. This stereotype, whether it is correct or incorrect, creates barriers, especially for minority voters.
In the 2004 election, George W. Bush directed extensive advertising efforts towards the Latino community, including campaigns on Spanish-language media (2). Connecting with the voters via their own language is probably one of the most effective ways to reach out. His positions favored Latinos more than past Republican candidates, supporting bilingual education programs and immigration legislation (3). Before Bush, Republicans have been generally ignorant towards many of the issues the Latino community is concerned with. Social programs, immigration, and education are all things Democrats devote much more time to than Republicans. Therefore, Latinos would be more interested in voting for a Democratic candidate.
(1)http://www.facsnet.org/issues/faith/latino_voting.php
(2)http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/nadler200412080811.asp
(3)http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/11/4/203450.shtml
In the upcoming election, I think the majority of Latino voters will vote Democrat. I think this because first of all, Latinos have historically voted Democrat in previous elections. Another reason is that the left-wing policies are more appealing to Latinos. For example, Obama wants to give a pathway to citizenship for the millions of Latinos already in the country. Republicans intend on cutting Hispanic immigration and reducing civil rights protections and welfare benefits for immigrants already in the country. Also, proposition 187, proposed by Republicans made created severe immigration structures.
I believe the Democratic Party is already doing a good job of attracting Latinos. Clinton and Obama have been paying special attention to this group. They realize that although hispanics only make up 5% of the voting population in the U.S. right now, this group may indeed become the majority in the near future.
Republicans, on the otherhand, are doing a rather poor job of appealing to Latinos. Republican attacks on immigrants have helped turn Latinos against the GOP. Another thing is that Republicans do not support various services such as language programs for Latinos as Democrats do. Also, it is virtually impossible for even the most intelligent illegal immigrant to get into a college or university in the United States. If Republicans pushed for an education plan for immigrants, they may also gain more of a following.
1. www.alternet.org
2. www.latimes.org
The majority of the Latino vote will go to the democrats in 2008. This is because the Republicans have left out Hispanics from their policy agenda, even targeting them, and the Democrats have traditionally held the minority voter base. Even though Bush won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004 (Edwards), the Republicans have increasingly alienated Latinos for the past four years (Washington Post). Numerous immigration bills, including one to criminalize undocumented immigrants, have plagued the GOP and further widened the gap between the Republicans and the Hispanic population (Washington Post). Republican candidates have turned down invitations to participate in debates on Univision, the major Spanish-speaking network, as well as skipping the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute in September (Washington Post). Three democratic candidates, on the other hand, debated on Univision in September. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards all courted the Latino vote and even criticized the republican candidates as anti-immigrant and racist (NY Times). Barack Obama made an appearance in East Los Angeles to defend immigration reform and affirmative action (LA Times). In a city where the Hispanic population is an enormous part of its culture, Obama’s move to appeal to the Latino vote was a smart one. The Democratic Party should continue their efforts to establish a relationship with the Hispanic population, more specifically appealing to the catholic, family-oriented part of that population since it worked fairly well for George W. Bush in 2004 (Washington Post). Republicans definitely need to step up their efforts to gain the Latino majority. As the fastest-growing population in the United States with 17 million eligible Hispanic voters (Washington Post), it would be ignorant for either party to avoid the Latino voting base. The Washington Post declares that the Latino vote will be crucial in several key states such as Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Florida, California, Texas and Arizona. In order to gain the presidency, the Republicans and the Democrats will both have to take the Latino vote into careful consideration.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9401E2DD1739F933A2575AC0A9619C8B63
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-na-obama21oct21,1,92277.story?ctrack=2&cset=true
Latino voters are growing in number and importance. I believe that the Democrats will win this section of the voters in 2008, but it will be closer than ever. History dictates that Hispanics will vote for the Democrats. According to a Hispanic Center, 50% of Hispanics consider themselves Democrats (2). In addition, 80% of Hispanics favor the Democratic plan for illegal immigrants (2). 41% also disagree with the handling of the War in Iraq by Republicans (2). However, the gap that Bush bridged in 2004 with the Hispanics is only going to get more narrow. In 2004 Bush carried over 40% of the Hispanic vote. Meanwhile, the Hispanic population is constantly changing and no longer homogeneous which gives even more of a chance to the Republicans. You can no longer group Hispanics with just the Democrats. A survey showed that 1st and 3rd generation Hispanics are very concerned with religion, which leads toward the Republicans (1). Additionally, Republican policies on entrepreneurship, fiscal policy, Hispanic evangelicals, and Cuba lend themselves for support from Hispanics (1). Illegal immigration, which used to be a top issue for Hispanics and one that prevented the Republicans from getting the vote, is no longer of top importance (1). All of these factors combined will make a very interesting election.
The Hispanic vote is going to be a battleground. It looks like there is a lot of room for either party to make their mark. Hispanics feel very disenfranchised. They are the fastest growing minority and yet 29% strongly agree that political leaders don’t care much about them (2). Even though many side with Democrats, a sizable minority don’t relate to either party (2). So how does each party win them over? I think that if Republicans are going to get more of their support they will have to make Hispanics feel that morally the two groups are compatible especially when dealing with religious issues. I also think that because the Iraq War is a big deal to them as well, the Republicans will have to give a clear vision on how to end the war. I believe that they will also have to emphasize their stance on Cuba. Since the number one issue for Hispanics is currently education, the Republicans will have to make an education plan that will get Hispanic support. On the other side, I believe that Democrats should focus on their stance on illegal immigration policy in order to gain more of the Hispanic vote. Since, traditionally, younger people support Democrats and the Hispanic population is younger than the general population, I believe that the Democrats should try to appeal to the young. I also believe that the Democrats need to market a healthcare policy, since this is important to many Hispanics. The 2008 election could be decided by the party that is able to persuade Hispanics to join them
sources:
(1) www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/Hispanic.vote/
(2) www.pewhispanic.org/newsroom/releases/release.php?ReleaseID=14
As the Latino population in the United States continues to grow, they are becoming more and more of an influence in the nation’s elections. Now representing over 14% of the population, currently the country’s fastest growing sect, capturing the support of this collective is key. Consistently in the 2000 and 2004 elections, George W. Bush received approximately 35% of the Latino vote, and similarly nearly 70% of Latinos voted Democratic in the 2006 midterm election. It is my opinion that this general trend eludes to the success of the ’08 Democrats in winning the support of this community.
Though 65% of said Latinos identify themselves as members of the Catholic faith, moral issues typically prioritized within this religion were not among the top concerns of these voters. One third of Latinos cited immigration as the top issue in the upcoming election. With generally less extremist policies on immigration, I feel the Democrats will remain most popular on this issue, if not overall. As cities and states around the Mexican-American border become continuously populated with immigrants, the 700 foot wall proposed by President Bush and supported by six of the leading Republican candidates, will likely fall to liberal initiatives. Through the Citizenship Promotion Act, Barack Obama is working to encourage formal citizenship for all immigrants through the maintenance of a reasonable and affordable method. He also promotes employment equity and opportunity for immigrants as well as an increase in the number of annual immigrants, in order to maintain families and fill the US demand for jobs. Democratic leader Hillary Clinton has also implemented positive immigration acts including the Immigrant Children’s Health Improvement Act, Access to Employment and English Acquisition, and the DREAM Act which helps send immigrant students to college. Such positive programs and policies should be continued by the Democrats in order to win the Latino majority next November.
In regards to the Republican advantage in immigration, pollster Celinda Lake noted, “If anything, this issue backfired when they attempted to use it to gain a conservative edge.” With extremist policies, conservatives are currently alienating Latino voters and immigrants alike. Republican leader Rudy Giuliani is in favor of a tough crackdown on illegal immigrants, including making them repay taxes to the US, learn English, and possess tamper-proof ID cards. In addition to supporting a high-tech fence at the border, Giuliani also supports National Guard assistance in border security. John McCain, also a fence fan, supports Bush’s current proposals to improve border security and technology. It is this physical restraint focus possessed by the conservatives that will likely drive away Latino voters, whereas liberals, with a personal opportunity and betterment focus for immigrants, are more likely to gain appeal from this Latino community. In order to gain more support form this group, Republicans should instead focus on their traditionally socially conservative ideals.
Before either party can win the support of this community, they must enable and encourage them to vote. Currently, the Latino community represents 14% of the American population. 40% of age-eligible Latinos are not citizens and cannot vote, and another 40% simply aren’t registered. Though Latino’s officially party membership is twice as great within the Democratic Party, both the liberals and conservatives must work to encourage legal citizenship and improve voter participation. Without their votes, support from this community is simply secondary. Also, as Latino voters also increasingly populate crucial swing states like Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, campaigning targeted towards these states is important within both parties. With 29 electoral votes amongst them, winning these states via of the Latinos within is a necessary effort for both Democrats and Republicans to make.
The emergence of the Latino community as a major influence in American politics has come about suddenly and greatly changed modern campaigns. Targeting the appeal of these voters has shaped what issues are, or in some cases, should dominate a party’s docket. While Democrats will likely win the appeal of Latino voters in 2008, they should continue to focus on the humanities of immigration. Republicans should not try to win the Latinos with their tough and extremist immigration ideas, but rather appeal to their socially conservative morals. Furthermore, both parties should work to improve voter participation among this group and gain their support in important swing states especially. After all, winning the support of this growing group could just be the deciding factor in the 2008 election.
http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061114/14latinos.htm
http://www.wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/polls/national/2004/flores.html
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20071029/lovato
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/immigration_and_the_border/
http://clinton.senate.gov/issues/immigration/
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/issues/issues.immigration.html
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20061110/ai_n16849133
http://www.nclr.org/content/publications/download/46271
In this year's upcoming election, the majority of Latino voters will most likely vote Democratic. The Latino community is the fastest growing community in the United States with 17 million Hispanics eligible to vote next November (1). I think that Latino voters will be most attracted to the Democratic candidate because the Democratic party is more tolerant of immigration (1). Immigration is one-third of Hispanics' top pick as the number-one issue in the 2008 election (2). Republicans are particularly anti-immigration. In addition to appealing more to immigration, the Democratic platform addresses issues more accustomed to Hispanic voters, such as advanced social programs.
The Latino community has been alienated by the Republicans, espessially through Bush's presidency. At first, Bush attracted a good portion of the Latino vote because he talked about family values, hard work, the American dream, and a better U.S.-Latin America relationship in his campaign (1). Now, he has abandoned the community with his support of immigration raids, the threat of firing immigrant workers, and worsened economic policies for the poor (1). This is resulting in much of the Hispanic community feeling as though the government have placed targets on their backs (2).
For the Republicans to gain the Hispanic majority vote, they will have to spend more time on the Hispanic community. The Republican candidates are choosing to not represent Latinos by not attending many public forums sponsored by Latino groups (1). For example, no Republican candidates showed up at July's convention of the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (1). Also, they all declined invites to participate in a Univision presidential debate broadcasted in Spanish (1). For the Republicans to gain the Hispanic vote, they will have to take a more active role in promoting their community.
The Democrats most likely have the Latino vote because their platform appeals to the social issues many Latinos are concerned with. Also, they are more tolerant towards immigration, have more plans for immigrants, and have a better plan for reforming the immigration process. The Latinos will be more attracted to the party that takes more concern with workplace raids of immigrants, racial profiling, and the lack of immigration reform (2). The Democratic party and the Democratic candidate is more likely to take concern with those issues (2). In addition, Hispanics weren't abandoned by the Democrats, they were abandoned by the Republicans in office (2). In conclusion, the majority of Hispanic vote will go to the Democratic candidate because the Democratic party has more appealing policies and a better dependability.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
2. http://www.alternet.org/story/65195/?page=2
I believe that a majority of Latino voters will vote democratic in the next presidential election. In the past, the Democratic Party has attracted many Latino voters due to their support for the Democratic Party’s stance on social programs, education, and immigration reform. I believe that this trend will continue in 2008, especially due to the Republican downturn as a result of the current administration’s unpopular foreign policy. According to a USA Today poll, 42% of Hispanic voters affiliate themselves with the Democratic Party as opposed to the 11% of Hispanic voters who affiliate themselves with the Republican Party (1).
The Democratic Party continues to attract Latino votes because they reach out to the Latino community. For example, all of the Democratic candidates spoke at the NALEO convention (National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials.) In contrast, the Republican candidates did not attend the NALEO convention due to scheduling conflicts (1). As Arturo Vargas, executive director of NALEO stated, “…It’s actions that speak louder than words" (1). The Republican Party’s absence from the NALEO convention exemplified to many that the Republican Party is less focused on reaching out to the Latino community. Another way the Democratic Party could attract more Latino voters is by discussing a clear plan on how to approach the issue of illegal immigration. Many Latinos have opposed the immigration policy of the current administration. This has resulted in many Latino voters turning away from the Republican Party because they feel the right wing supports a very tough position on illegal immigration. According to the Zogby International post-election poll, only 29% of Hispanics polled said they feel that the Republicans are more effective in dealing with immigration. 60% felt that the Democrats are better equipped to set a comprehensive immigration policy (2). Many Latinos have taken offense to the Republican Party’s views on illegal immigration and hope that in 2008, there can be a change in policy.
The Republican Party still has hope in reaching out to the Latino community and winning their votes. Many Latinos support the Republican Party’s promotion of traditional family values. It would serve the party well to emphasize this viewpoint in order to attract more Latino votes. Furthermore, a recent poll displays that the number of “born again” Evangelical Christians is expanding amongst Hispanic population (23%). These people were found to be more likely to support the Republican Party. The Republicans should focus on maintaining the support of this group in particular. In the 2004 election, George Bush was effective in winning Latinos’ votes by praising their values and sometimes speaking Spanish. This proved to be effective since he gained 40% of the Latino vote (1). In order for the Republican Party to gain significant support from the Latino community they will have to compromise on the issue of immigration and be willing to work with the Democrats to create an immigration reform that grants amnesty to guest workers, provides an opportunity for citizenship, and attempts to decrease the number of new illegal immigrants entering the country (2). If the Republicans focus on these main aspects, they will be more likely to gain support from the Latino community.
1. http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-06-27-hispanics-dems-cover_N.htm
2. http://www.lulac.org/advocacy/press/2006/gotv4.html
Latino voters have become a crucial voting bloc in American elections. According to the 2000 census, Latinos made up 10% of the population in 11 out of the 28 US House districts that switched from Republican to Democrat. Based on their continuing rise in population, the Latino group is one that candidates can’t choose to ignore. It has been shown in both chapter 10 of our government textbook, and an online article on facsnet.com that Latinos have historically voted more towards the Democrats. According to the poll on facsnet, 49% of Latinos voted Democrat, 14% voted Republican, and 37% were either independents or undecided. With these statistics it’s clear that while a majority may be voting Democrat, there is still a large group that may still have the ability to be swung to the other side. One of the main reasons that Latinos most often choose Democrat is because of their stance on immigration. The Democratic Party is much more lenient on the subject of illegal immigration. They want all illegal aliens to be given a chance at citizenship and wants people reunited with their families. On the other hand, the Republican Party wants much stricter rules on illegal immigration and has even proposed the building of a 700 mile long wall along the US-Mexico border, which, according the USA today would send a “terrible signal” to Latinos in today’s society. Also, Latinos have been seen to vote Democrat based on the party’s handling of situations such as economy, race, class, and poverty. With these issues, the Democratic Party feels strongly that the US government should have a role, which is also something pleasing to the Latino groups.
One thing that I discovered that I thought was interesting was in an article in the online New York Times, which said: “For Hispanic voters, a candidate’s position on immigration does not matter as much as how he or she expresses it. So some Republican strategists are worried that the force of voices like that of Representative Tom Tancredo, who has referred to the influx of immigrants as an “invasion” and wrote a book accusing multiculturalists of weakening the country, might be stronger than that of President Bush, who has long pushed for “comprehensive” immigration reform.” This shows that while Latinos are probably against the immigration views of the Republicans, the Republicans might be able to sway the few undecided voters by simply toning down the language for the proposed views on immigration. One other way that I feel the Republican Party may be able to some Latino voters would be to appeal to their religious side. Considering that Latinos are mostly Catholic, and the Republican Party is the best representation of Catholic views, this would be a good way to get to a majority of Latinos. It seems that the best way for The Democratic Party to keep its hold on the Latino voters would be to continue showing off its support for the loose immigration rules and also to reach out to the Latino community by focusing on those other concerns such as the economy and poverty.
http://www.usatoday.com
http://www.facsnet.com
http://www.thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com
Sorry, that was Michelle Ludwig!
The Latino voters will play a very important part in the upcoming election. There are an estimated 17 million Hispanic voters already, and that number is growing at about 4% per year (1). Besides their sheer numbers, many Hispanics are situated in swing states. This is an added incentive for both parties to actively seek their vote. I think that in the upcoming election, the majority of the Latino voters will choose Democratic candidates. This is for several reasons. Historically the Latino community has usually supported the Democratic party. This started with FDR’s and Kennedy’s presidencies (1). Hispanics tend to support the Democrats, because they tend to be of lower income. This makes them appreciate social welfare programs much more. This support translates to Democratic support. Also, I think the lack of zeal that the Republicans are showing will hurt them. At the recent Univision debate, only 1 Republican candidate was going to appear, as opposed to 4 on the Democratic side (1). The Democrats seem to be trying harder right now, and this is what will win them the Hispanic vote.
I think the Democrat party is doing exactly what it needs to do to attract Latino voters. Inherently, Hispanics support that party, because it agrees with most of their ideologies. Democrats want to loosen the immigration standards and reward illegal immigrants with some form of amnesty (2). Not to say all Hispanics are illegal, but this does help Democrats in the eyes of many in the Hispanic community. Furthermore, the Democrats prize education and universal healthcare as well as many other social programs. All of this is prized by the Latino voters. Also, the Democrats are really trying to increase citizenship and Latino voter turnout (3). They are sending people door to door and many conventions to convince the Latino voters that their votes count (3). All of these actions are exactly what the Democrats need to do and continue to do, in order to be successful.
The Republican party seems to be failing in its quest for Latino votes. This is largely because of their ideological differences and apathy towards minorities. Earlier, the Republicans could overlook the minority vote and still win the election. Now, however, minorities are almost the majority of the US, and they have to be catered to if a party has any hope of winning. Republicans need to focus on their strong moral and family values that they say form the backbone of their party. These are the two largest issues that they share with Hispanic voters. If they can do this, and actually pay attention to the Hispanic community (by attending Hispanic debates and going door-to-door) then they might have a chance of winning. If they continue to do what they are doing, they have no chance of winning the Hispanic or the general vote.
(1) http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/index.html#cnnSTCText
(2) http://democrats.org/pdfs/2004platform.pdf
(3) http://www.democrats.org/a/2006/07/50-state_strate_14.php
I think that the majority of Hispanic voters will vote Democratic in the upcoming election. An article from the U.S. News and World Report noted that according to exit polls, about 70 percent of Hispanic voters voted Democratic in the 2006 elections (1). Also, even though President Bush managed to receive 40 to 44 percent of the Hispanic vote in 2004, in the past Hispanic voters have voted more Democratic (1). I also think recent ideas from Republicans, such as building a wall along the border, will provide further incentive for many Hispanic people to vote Democratic. Democratic candidate Richardson was quoted in a New York Times article mocking the Republican idea by saying, “If you’re going to build a 12-foot wall, you know what’s going to happen? A lot of 13-foot ladders (2).”
A reason that the Hispanic community will turn to the Democrats is that the Democrats do not support more immigration barriers. Many Democratic candidates support allowing illegal immigrants to become citizens, while many Republicans support the stricter idea of no amnesty and deporting illegal immigrants (2). Also, after an immigration debate where congressional Republicans’ statements offended many Hispanic people, the community will be much more supportive of Democrats (3). Democrats have made sure they do not offend the Hispanic community in any way because they understand the importance of the Hispanic community in elections. They have put a lot of effort into being seen as understanding and supportive of the needs of the Hispanic community, while Republicans have not.
Although I do not think it is likely that the Republicans will be able to make a change that will dramatically increase their appeal to Hispanic voters, an article from USA TODAY states, “Hispanics are twice as likely as non-Hispanics to describe themselves as independents who don't "lean" to either party (3).” This shows that with some effort, there is a chance that Republicans could win more of the Hispanic vote. However, for the Republicans to do this they would have to change some of their core ideas, like tightening immigration and being stricter on illegal immigrants. Softening on those issues would probably lose the Republicans some conservative voters, which is why the Republicans would be wary of changing their stances.
One thing that connects Republicans with Hispanic voters is their stances on moral issues. Hispanics tend to support the traditional values that Republicans do because most Hispanics are Catholic, and religion is important to them. However, Republicans are not using that connection to their advantage enough, but if they emphasized it more they might persuade a few Hispanic voters to join them. The example of the NALEO (the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials) convention, which all Republican candidates declined to attend, clearly shows that Republicans are not actively trying to reach out to the Hispanic community (3). The decisions of the candidates to not attend the NALEO convention gives the impression that the Republican party does not respect the Hispanic community enough to attend their events. To win Hispanic votes, Republicans must try harder to reach out to the Hispanic community. They must also soften their approach on immigration and illegal immigration, which is something that could cost them the votes of their main voters.
Unlike the Republicans, all of the Democratic candidates attended the NALEO convention (3). This is another example of how the Democrats are reaching out to the Hispanic community, and showing that they recognize, respect and value the Hispanic community. Democrats just have to continue giving attention the Hispanic community. As a USA TODAY article states, “Hispanics, by nearly 3 to 1, say they're Democrats or lean that way. Of those, 59% support the New York senator [Clinton] over her presidential rivals (3).” The same article also notes that when comparing Clinton to Giuliani, 66 percent of Hispanics support Clinton, while only 27 percent support Giuliani (3). The Democrats must continue reaching out to the Hispanic community, and they will continue to win over Hispanic voters.
(1) http://www.usnews.com/usnews/news/articles/061114/14latinos.htm
(2) http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/10/us/politics/10dems.html?fta=y&pagewanted=all
(3) http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-06-27-hispanics-dems-cover_N.htm
Given the evidence, I find it inevitable Latino voters will tend to support the Democratic candidate in the 2008 election. Empirically, it has taken a drastic shift in a party’s policy for a minority group to shift its support to the other side. Looking to Lyndon B. Johnson’s legislation concerning civil rights for African-Americans, this was a drastic change in policy for the Democrats and consequently led to the conservative South to shift their support to the Republican Party (1). There has been no drastic shift in the Republican Party that would encourage Latinos to vote for them. If anything, their vitriolic stance towards immigration has grown even stronger in recent years (2). Americans view Republicans as more anti-immigrant than Democrats. The social issues that Catholic Latinos face seem to play a lesser role in determining how they will vote. As Democrats support the Catholic view of social welfare, and Republicans support the Catholic view of morality, it would logically seem to be a toss-up between the parties. However, this has not been the case in past elections. Catholics tended to throw their support to the Democratic candidates in the most recent election (the 2006 midterms) (3), and there is no evidence that this recent pattern will change.
1.http://home.nyc.rr.com/taranto/south.htm
2.http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2007/08/04/MNJ7RCGOU1.DTL
3.http://pewforum.org/news/display.php?NewsID=11877
-Silas Berkowitz
I know this response will seem repetitive, but I also believe that the majority of Latino voters will be voting Democratic this upcoming election. Something that I think will heavily influence the Latino voters is the change of heart experienced during the Bush administration (1). When President Bush was campaigning, he gained a large amount of Latino votes because he appealed to Latin American issues like family values, hard work, and he placed emphasis on improving American relations with Latin American countries. However, once in the presidential office, the administration’s discourse toward the issue of immigration severely undermined the Latino voter (2).
However, I think the Democratic party is going to need to fight to keep its hold on the Latino votes. They need to be able to address issues that the Latino voter sees as important (3), and be able to allow government reform without alienating the fastest growing minority group in America. Another key step that needs to be taken for either party to gain Latino votes is to get the Latino community to the polls. Less than 50% of the Latino population that is eligible to vote is registered, and even less take part in the election process (3).
The Republican party, as difficult as it may be, stands to have at least a chance at winning back the key Latino vote. Many Hispanic voters are aggravated by the Democratic approach toward their beliefs, choosing to approach the Latino voting community with caution and suspicion because they don’t want to alienate other potential voters (1). If Republicans attempted to approach the Hispanic voting community much like President Bush did originally when he was campaigning for presidency, claiming to be a “compassionate conservative”, then they would stand to gain much support from the Hispanic community once again. However, if such events repeat themselves such as all of the Republican candidates (excluding McCain) skipping out on a debate translated in Spanish for the Latino community, then they stand to be continually portrayed as scapegoating the Hispanic community and allowing the Democrats to steal back all the votes earned for them by President Bush.
1.http://www.creators.com/opinion/miguel-perez/winning-the-hispanic-vote-by-default.html
2.http://socrates.berkeley.edu:7001/Publications/newsletters/Spring2007/pdf/ReviewSpring2007-standard-Echaveste.pdf
3.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
I am of the belief that the Latino vote will go to the Democratic Party in the 2008 election. President Bush’s administration has been overtaken by restrictionists, or politicians with strong anti-immigration views. A sizable part of the Latino population in southern and western states like Texas and California are immigrants, so another restrictionist regime from the Republican Party is probably not very high on the list of the Latino population. The Republican candidates have been blowing off the Latino population repeatedly, refusing to attend numerous large events hosted by Latino elected officials.
This isn’t to say Democratic candidates are doing everything right. Senator Barack Obama skipped the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute debate. The candidates don’t seem to realize that the Latino vote it a fast-rising power, and if neither side jumps in, there will be about 17 million Hispanics out there voting for an independent.
For the Democratic Party to gain the Latino vote, the biggest selling item would be immigrant rights. The Republican Party has tended recently to be very anti-immigrant, so if the Democrats were to jump on the opposite wagon, they’d be in good shape. And it would probably help if Obama didn’t ignore them.
The Republican Party has a lot more work to do. First of all, stop blowing them off. It’s not rocket science. If you don’t ignore someone, they’ll be more likely to vote for you than they would be if you cover your ears and hum every time they start talking. The next step after the obvious would be to try to loosen the restrictionist hold on the government. Restrictionists are bad for the Hispanic population in general. They’re basically just mean to immigrants, and that certainly won’t get them any immigrant votes.
So basically, both parties have to stop ignoring the Hispanic population. When the 2020 election comes around and the Latino vote is the biggest in the country, they’re both going to wish they had done something now.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
The Latino population in the United States has emerged as a powerful and influential force in the electorate. The political party Latinos choose to align themselves with may become the deciding factor in the upcoming 2008 presidential election resulting in the Democrat’s and Republican’s recognition of the importance of Latino voters. Each party has begun campaigns that must expand and reform to truly capture the Latino vote.
The majority of the Latino population will vote Democrat in the 2008 presidential election. Several reasons contribute to the above prediction: (1) the rise in Democrat party identification by Latinos, (2) the recent tendencies of Latino voters, and (3) the decline of Latino support for Republicans. First, Latinos are identifying themselves with the Democratic Party because “new immigrants tend to register as Democrats” (*). Also, a current USA Today poll indicated a trend of three to one Latinos claim association with or near the Democrat Party (1). Latino mayor Antonio Villariagosa has publicly endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for the presidency (5). Second, recent polls and elections reveal Latinos have begun voting Democrat. The 2000 presidential candidate Al Gore gathered sixty-two percent of the Latino vote (6), and approximately sixty-nine percent of Latinos voted for Democratic candidates in 2006 Congressional midterm elections (5). Finally, political experts strongly suggest that “the tide is now turning more strongly against the Republican Party…it is expected that some Latino voters will also ride the Democratic wave”. The recent resignations of Republican National Committee chairman Mel Martinez and former U.S. Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales, both prominent Latino politicians, have caused several Latinos to withdraw their support for the Republicans. Indeed, “The sizable support the Republicans once held in the Latino community…has waned” (5).
The Democrat Party has already established a clear campaign focused towards Latino voters. Hillary Clinton has engaged in Spanish-television, participated in an Univision network debate, and continues to address the Latino population directly. She has met with Latino lawmakers, and her staff pays close attention to detail by eating at Latino-inspired restaurants (4). Barak Obama invested significant energy in reaching Latinos in California with speeches denouncing the California Dream Act and the current president and vice-president (3). Due to their current success, Democrat Party candidates should invariably continue their current campaigns. The party must champion issues important to the Latino culture, including the American Dream, immigration, the economy, employment, education, and the Iraq War (5). Campaigns must appear bilingual, and candidates must accept all invitations to meet with politically active Latinos groups, such as the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials (NALEO). Currently, all Democrat candidates have agreed to meet with this well-known group (1). Democrats must continue their current campaign to win the support of Latino voters.
The Republican Party must immediately reform it’s current campaign to attract Latino support. Policies regarding immigration must be adapted as Latinos have frowned upon the party’s position while championing the family values of it’s platform. Hispanics indicated approval for the Republican’s family values in 2004 (1). Candidates must make a stronger effort to be recognized in Latino media. Senator John McCain was the only Republican candidate which agreed for an appearance on Spanish-television (2). In regard to a NALEO forum, all Republican candidates have dismissed requests for attendance (1). Finally, Republicans must end all negative, stereo-typical television ads against illegal immigration as it “could doom the party's hope of competing for the country's fastest-growing voter bloc [Latinos]” (2). The Republican Party ought to revise the current campaign to appeal to Latino voters.
(1) http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2007-06-27-hispanics-dems-cover_N.htm
(2) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-martinez20oct20,1,165940.story?coll=la-news-politics-national&ctrack=1&cset=true
(3) http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-obama21oct21,1,482040.story?coll=la-news-politics-national&ctrack=2&cset=true
(4) http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfYbPLFUmEw-IoEVUUVfPR7wRShQ
(5) http://www.matt.org/english/editorial/democracy_accountability_&_civic_responsibility/387_getting_the_latino_vote_in_2008.html
(6) http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4143421
I think that the majority of Latino voters will vote for a Democratic candidate in the 2008 election. The Democrats will gain the Latino votes because of their similar views on issues such as education, immigration policy, and universal healthcare. Latino voters are typically more likely to benefit from these and other Democrat- supported government programs. (1) Also, historically Latinos are already more aligned with the Democratic party. According to the Latino Issues Forum, Latino voters have always has a higher rate of registering as Democrats. (2) In March 2007, 63% of registered Latino voters had already identified themselves as Democrats.
I think the Democratic party should continue to promote their platform to Latino voters who share similar policy agendas. Meeting with Latino communities and citizens shows that the party is interested in what they have to say and gives them a strong political efficacy. I believe that even taking these small steps, and allowing the Republicans to hurt their own chances with Latino voters, the Democrats will effortlessly gain the Latino votes.
Gaining Latino voters for the Republican party will prove to be a more difficult. I do not believe that the Republicans can keep their current voters and try to get the Latino vote as well. (3) To gain the Latino vote, Republicans would have to review their stance on the occupation of Iraq, being that 66% of the Latino voters feel that the war was a mistake. The Republicans obviously can only take one of the positions on the war and successfully take those votes. Also, I would like to add that the Republican party’s positions on illegal immigration, healthcare, and their hostility towards bi-lingual education has made the Republican party appear that they do not care about the Latino voters.
(1) http://www.lif.org/
(2) http://www.latinopolicycoalition.org/07.public_memo_PRESVOTES.F.pdf
(3) http://www.latinopolicycoalition.org/07.public_memo_IRAQ.F.pdf
Hispanic/Latino voters are most likely to vote democratic in the 2008 election. In the past because of presidents like Lyndon Johnson and JF Kennedy who paid them attention (1). Though Latinos have many reasons to be Republican (1) there are a few major problems with the Republican platform that lead them to the Democratic vote. The Republicans are strictly anti-immigrant and Latinos assume they are also anti-Latino. Many Latinos support withdrawal from Iraq and broadening of public programs such as health care (2). The remains of La Raza Unida has also been very active in the Democratic Party since it’s collapse in the 1970’s (3). This integration into the Democratic Party obviously suggests that Latinos have been working to get their voices heard and that it is more likely they have persuaded the Democrats to more accurately represent them. This can be seen in the refusal of all but one Republican candidate to appear on a Univision debate while all but one Democratic candidate agreed (1). Cubans are the exception to the commonly democratic Latinos because they are very Republican (1).
At present times the Democrats are doing a good job gaining the Latino vote. I think a lot of this has to do with the failings of the Republican Party to appeal to Latino voters who are not becoming a more important and larger voting demographic. The democrats would be really wise to try and gain all Latino support they can because Latino votes are predicted to cause swings in 20 states (4). It was a very good strategy on the Democrats part to choose a convention place that has a fast growing population of Latin Americans and is considered a possible swing state because of it (1). Moves like these show how interested in the Latino vote Democrats are, these tactics are winning favor.
The Republicans are not in s very good spot to do much for the Latino voter. Their voter base expects them to be harsh on immigration laws and they must be in order to keep a lot of their base (1). On the other hand there are issued with which the Republicans could lure some Latinos to vote for them, especially evangelicals. Many of its money based policies, such as entrepreneurship and fiscal policies also appeal to Hispanic voters (1). There are also a lot of Republican figures that are setting a bad image of the rest. Tom Tarcento, a Republican candidate and Lou Dobbs are both examples of figures who are making a bad impression on Latino voters with very openly negative views on Immigration. If the Republican Party sustains its poor image in the Latin American Voters eyes, then they have a lot to loose as Latin Americans grow in both population and political power (5).
(1) http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
(2) http://www.pww.org/index.php/article/articleview/11893/1/395
(3) http://www.digitalhistory.uh.edu/mexican_voices/voices_display.cfm?id=114
(4) http://www.pww.org/index.php/article/articleview/11893/1/395
(5) http://www.usnews.com/blogs/mashek/2007/9/17/gop-tosses-the-hispanic-vote.html
Well I am hoping that the Latino voters will side with the Democratic Party, but the last time I looked at the blog I have seen a pretty one side argument, so I figured I might as well state a different point of view since my personal views have been expressed several times thus far.
With the actual presidential election being a little over a year away it is very possible that the Republican Party will have a chance to woo the potential Latino voters. With everyone saying that the Latino population will be a shoe in for the Democratic Party is definitely going to give republicans a fire to try and swing the Latino community towards their party. I think that so far Latinos have been identifying themselves as democratic because they have recently felt written off by the Republican Party so they in turn say well screw them we will go to the other side. I think that the Hispanic community has benefited from programs from the Bush administration which will put more faith into the Republican Party in the near future. Things such as No Child Left Behind and the tons of jobs created have greatly improved the lives of Hispanics. It is also interesting that Latinos are as much in favor of enforcing immigration laws and border security as most people are. So the way in which I think that the Republican Party can attract Latino voters would be to not view immigration laws as a way of saving the U.S. from the perils of immigration from Central and South America. Hispanics are obviously turned off by this because that can very well be viewed as border line racism. So republicans should definitely be more sensitive to this issue.
I think for the Democratic Party to attract the Latino voters they will really have to drive home the point of social programs that will directly better the lives of the Hispanic community. It will also help the democrats if they try and hang on to their current “lead” with the Latino community for as long as possible.
~ugh hardest blog to write so far……
~Asia
Liana:
As history has shown, Latino voters are not loyal to one political party. They are becoming more diverse as they have become the nation’s largest minority (1). In the upcoming election the Latino community has the potential to play an especially significant role in ‘purple’ states such as Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida. As an example, Latinos make up 4 percent of the population of Wisconsin, which is a state that Bush lost to Gore in 2000 by just 5,700 votes(1). Clearly, every vote counts in swing states. As to which party will win the Latino vote, I say the democrats. Here is why: the stereotypical important issues to the Latino community are no longer as applicable. Their primary political concerns are not immigration and socially conservative policies. In 2004 Latinos named education as the most important political issue followed closely by the economy and healthcare. Sixty-one percent of Latinos said they would be willing to pay higher taxes and insurance premiums for government to provide health insurance for all uninsured Americans. Clearly, Latinos are focusing on more Democratic Party issues. In addition, 62 percent disapproved of the way Bush was handling the war in Iraq (1). This seems to push Latinos in at least a slightly more ‘left’ direction politically.
This is not to say that winning the Latino vote will be easy for the democrats. The Democratic Party has to tailor their campaigning in ways that will encourage Latinos to go out the polls. One thing they should do is continue to run campaign advertisements in Spanish on Spanish-speaking television. Although 80% of registered Latino voters are primarily English speakers, 65% say that the candidate’s ability to address them in Spanish is either “very important” or “somewhat important”. This is to say that advertising in Spanish is money well spent. Although immigration is no longer on the top of the “most important” list in the Latino community, the Democratic Party should bring up legislation such as Proposition 187 which the Republicans pushed that denied health care, education and welfare benefits to illegal immigrants (2). Even though this happened in 1994, this could still be used to show a sympathetic ear to the illegal immigration that undoubtedly occurred in some of the current Latinos families’ history. Also, the Democratic Party should capitalize on what the party and the Latino Community tend to agree on: improving education, increasing health care, and getting troops out of Iraq. Statistics show that these are the areas that Latinos tend to lean to the left on; therefore, these should be the areas the Democratic Party should communicate to this community.
The Republicans have a good chance of winning the Latino vote if they focus on the right issues. They, like the Democrats, should continue campaigning in Spanish. They also should focus on the social conservative aspects of their platform such as restricting abortions. This should not be the primary focus while speaking to this community; however, because this is not their main concern. Republicans should focus on their future education strategy and talk about the successes (such as in elementary schools) of the “No Child Left Behind Act”. Both Parties present favorable ideas to the Latino and it looks like no matter what it will be a close race in determining the swing states. Both parties must acknowledge the importance of the Latino community and focus on what common views the party and the community share.
(1) http://www.alternet.org/election04/19485/
(2) http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
The Hispanic vote will be very important because they make up the largest and also the fastest growing minority group in the United States. It will most probably default to the Democratic Party in the 2008 elections because Democrats have been historically known for reaching out to minorities and the Republicans have been known for sticking to the status quo.
The Latino vote has historically been aligned with the Democratic Party. This coalition was established during the administrations of Presidents Franklin Roosevelt and John F. Kennedy (1). However, it would be foolish to perceive the Hispanic electorates as one homogenous block loyal to one party (1). CNN points out that their priorities will shape their voting behavior. A lot of Hispanics tend to be social Conservatives because of their Roman Catholic background. This is in sync with the Conservative agenda regarding a ban on gay marriage and abortion. Another important thing to realize is that the Hispanic community hails from over a dozen different countries (1). Another reason is that most Cuban immigrants will vote Republican because of their strong stance against Castro and his communist regime. This was seen when Gore lost a lot of potential voters in 2000 because the Cuban community in Florida was outraged when Elian Gonzales had to be sent back to Cuba.
The main reason why a majority of Hispanics will vote for the Democrats in the upcoming election is due to the party’s immigration platform. Democrats have consistently supported a relatively open flow of immigration while Republicans have favored restricting it. It is interesting to note, however, that President Bush wanted to grant amnesty to the millions of illegal immigrants in this country while a majority of the Republicans voted against it (1). In fact, Bush received a whopping 42 percent of the Hispanic vote in the 2004 presidential elections (2). I don’t believe this will shift the Hispanic vote too much to the right. Republicans have also supported putting a fence at the US-Mexican border. This really alienates the Latinos living here and stigmatizes the ones who are legally here. Democrats on the other hand have consistently voted against the fence bill. This was seen when Mel Martinez, the Republican party’s highest official resigned recently due to the immigration issue. This was a setback to the Republicans because he was the embodiment of the party reaching out to their Latino voters (2).
In order for the Republicans to reach out to the Hispanic voters, they should focus more on the social issues and really bring it out while being open to diversity and immigration reform bills. It would also be helpful if they tried to NOT make English the official national language. This would be helpful because they could do get out the vote campaigns in Spanish, thus reaching a far wider group of people.
On the other hand, the Democrats should really bring home the point that they support new faces in this country and also support social programs alleviating the financial burdens that new immigrants face. Examples include universal healthcare and public education. They should really make immigrants feel that they can achieve their dream here in the “promised land.”
1. http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/?iref=mpstoryview
2. http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/politics/la-na-martinez20oct20,1,165940.story?coll=la-news-politics-national
Macall:
I think the majority of Latino voters will vote democratic in this next election because they are best represented by that party. Latinos will mainly be retrospective voters, what a specific party has done to personally help them, because democrats have better incorporated minorities over the past decade into their platform.
Democrats typically are in favor of immigration, welfare, universal healthcare, and other social programs that benefit minorities, low-income citizens, and youth. Latinos usually want more immigration or freedom of it, availability to welfare, and cheaper healthcare costs. The Democratic Party does a good job including these topics into their campaign in ways that are beneficial to their base. Therefore, I think the Democrats already do a good job on attracting the Latino vote.
The Republican Party on the other hand is rather unsuccessful in representing Latinos. I think they know they would need to make drastic changes in their policies to gain the Latino vote. But in doing so they would lose or risk losing their traditional base of mainly whites, Christians, and upper-middle class citizens; so it may not be worth it to try to gain the Latino vote. In order for the Republican Party to get even some of the Latino vote they must loosen their strict stance on immigration. Like they would need to take Bush’s 2 million illegal immigrant amnesty policy and multiply it by 3. Also they would need to extend more rights, make things more available, and create more programs to help the Latinos. The only attraction the republicans have to the Latinos is their ideas on tax cuts.
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/politics/cal/la-me-congreso6oct06,1,6031938.story?coll=la-news-politics-california
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hfYbPLFUmEw-IoEVUUVfPR7wRShQ
http://www.pww.org/index.php/article/articleview/11893/1/395
Tenzin:
TO: Prisbaby (Finger Snapper)
From: Tenzin
I agree with you when you say that a candidate needs to represent their community to the point where they can relate to them. However, I think “needs” can be interpreted in different ways. It can either mean morally obliged to because they are of that background OR has to if they want to win. I think that in this election, it is critical for Hilary and Obama to get the support of the black community AND the American women, not because they are themselves of that certain group but because a Democratic candidate has never won without the combined support of these coalitions. I also agree with you when you say that the candidate should not alienate other potential supporters by being too narrowly focused on the issues of their own community. This was what people worried about with JFK. There were some ridiculous predictions as to how he would consult the Pope before he took any action. The same goes for Romney on the Republican’s side. If he was too focused on Mormon issues, he would definitely lose the support of the Evangelical Christians who make up the largest majority of Republican constituents. Overall, we can only hope that people will value candidates for their policies and how they serve for the betterment of America instead of their background and how well they represent their community. As for the Jena 6 issue, I believe that every candidate has a responsibility to uphold the basic liberties affirmed by the Constitution such as justice and equality instead of just playing partisan politics. Rev. Al Sharpton pointed this out saying that it is the nation’s responsibility to step in to “Jena and the Jenas of this country” to prove that the states did not win the civil war (1). Thus, I don’t think people should only accuse Obama for not supporting the Jena 6 rally. This should not be a racialized issue. Instead of focusing on what Obama could and should have done for the Jena 6, we should focus instead on what the candidates as a whole can do to improve race relations in America. It is so disgusting to see that the noose has replaced the burning cross for many white supremacists (2). There are times when injustice is so blatant that your party identification or background should not be an obstacle to seeing the truth.
1. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/16/AR2007101601916.html?sub=AR
2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/19/AR2007101902543.html
I believe that the Latino voters will vote for the Democratic Party in the upcoming election. Historically the Democratic Party has helped the minority groups such as the Irish Catholics and the African Americans. The Republicans have not done a good job at gaining Latino support in the campaign. The Republican candidates have skipped many important Latino meetings such as the National Association of Latino Elected Officials, the largest gathering of its kind in the country, and the National Council of La Raza’s annual convention(1). The candidates also rejected invitations to take part a presidential debate sponsored by Univision, a Latino media corporation(1). President Bush has not helped the Republicans with his time in office. In the 2004 election he promised many things to the Latino voters and gained 40 percent of their vote. President Bush currently passes economic policies that hurt poor Americans and restrict the rights of Latinos across the country(1).
The Republican Party needs to gain support from the Latino voters because it is estimated that 17 million Hispanics will be eligible to vote in the election. They can gain support by campaigning on a platform that supports rights for Latinos and helps to clean up the states where they have a large population. States such as Arizona, Nevad, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida will be key during the election(2). Both parties need to concentrate on them. The Democrats are doing a good job of gaining support so far, thus they should just continue what they are doing. The Republicans need to do a 180 and try to seperate themselves from the alienating policies of the Bush administration.
1: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html
2: http://edition.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
I think the Latino voters will vote predominantly for the Democratic party because of their suppport for minorty groups. They also support more programs for lower income people and families. Many immigrants including Latinos have lower paying jobs because of language barriers,etc. To gain more and more support the democratic party should continue to focus on supporting immigrants and programs for them. If the republican party wants to gain more of the Latino vote they should further emphasize the moral and religious side of their platform since many Latinos are very religious, specifically Catholic.
Another thing to add, Latinos have voted democratic consistently in the past. More Latinos, however, did vote republican in the 2004 election because of Karl Rove's emphasis on moral values.
The majority of the Latino voters will vote for the Democrat in the 2008 election because that is the party that majority of Latinos has identified with in the past. Some reasons are because, they are a group of people that benefited from government programs in the past. Also when it comes to the issue on immigration, Democrats have a plan that will favor them. But not to say it will be a clean sweep for the Democrats because, according to an article on USATODAY, Bush was able to raise the Latino votes for the Republican from 35 to 44 percent in the 2004 election.
Democrats have been doing a remarkable job to stay in tune with Latinos and many minority groups. They support policies that ensures equality and fair treatments to all people. For example, on the issue of immigration, Democrats have adopted the policy of legalizing illegal immigrants already in the country. They also favor government programs to help immigrants.
The advantage the Republicans had in the 2004 election might diminish because of the stance they have chosen on immigration. The republicans plan to track down all illegal immigrants and deport them. Since Latinos are the third wave of immigrants to the country in our history, they are angered by thisAccording to an article in Nyorktimes, the only republican Senator Mel Martinez of Florida, gave his colleagues a stern warning on the issue of immigration. What the republicans could do is employ a more favorable stance on the immigration that will appeal to Latino voters.
Here are the links to this articles:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/30/politics/30hispanics.html
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/2004-11-10-hispanic-voters_x.htm
The Democrats seem to be doing a good job of attracting Latino voters, mostly by default. They are the ones who show up at minority interest group conventions and committee meetings, thus guaranteeing that their viewpoint is heard, largely to the exclusion of Republicans. At the National Association of Latino Elected Officials (admittedly a small organization) this July, only one Republican was in attendance. Given how much the Latino population as a whole seems to have in common with the Republican party (or, at the least, its platform) it would seem odd that Bush’s garnering of 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004 was revolutionary. Given the necessary rigor of campaigning in the United States, it seems as though most of the candidates should be actively trying to get the Latino vote. However, most of the decisions in the primary are front-loaded, and thus whichever candidate is finally chosen in the primary next year will likely spend more time with this group. With the Democrats more active in the field, this may not be good enough to secure support in 2008. By concentrating on what they have in common with Hispanics and by forming a comprehensive immigration platform (as opposed to party infighting), the Republicans could likely get the majority of the Latino vote. To accomplish this, it will be necessary that the GOP make a concerted effort to get attention, instead of letting the Democratic Party do all the talking.
Without much change, it is likely that the Latino vote will remain similar to what it was pre-2004. Still, much remains to be seen, especially what the candidates finally selected do to court Latino voters. The way things are, most minorities are more familiar with, and traditionally have more loyalty to, the Democratic Party. As it is, Latino perception tends to be that Republicans are ignoring them. With effort, the Republicans could pull ahead, but without it, the advantage remains to the Democrats.
http://politicalinsider.com/2006/11/hispanic_vote_key_in_2008.html
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2007/07/a_problem_of_perception.html
My belief is that the Latino vote will go to the Democrats in the upcoming election. Some argue that the Latino vote is becoming more of a swing vote, instead of going to the Democrats, but it doesn't seem to be full out switching to the Republican side. In past elections the Latino vote mostly goes to the Democrats, and many do not see that changing. The Democrats keep the Latino vote because of their consistent attention to the Latino people.
The Democrats should basically keep doing what they're doing. They have a good track record for keeping the Latino vote and if they keep paying attention to the Latinos than there isn't really a reason why most would switch to the Republican side. The Democrats relate better to the issues, and their opinions on them, in general compared to the Republicans who are running an anti-immigration campaign. If the Republicans keep stressing their anti-immigration views and not clear views on the war, they will alienate the Latino voters even more, and the Democrats will get the advantage.
The Republicans on the other hand need to stop ignoring the Latino vote. The Latino population is the fastest growing population in our country. It is said that there will be 17 million eligible Latino voters in the upcoming election. This is up 7% from the 2004 election. As the Latino vote grows, the Republican party needs to step up what they're doing and pay attention to this important group- and their important votes. Though doing this is hard for the Republicans because of their hard decisions on immigration. It is very hard for the Republicans to get the Latino vote when coming in from behind. Even when the Republicans realize the Latino vote is increasingly becoming more important they still aren't seeming to change what they're doing. Univision had scheduled a debate for September, but John McCain was the only Republican who agreed to show up. All but one Democrat agreed to, so the debate never happened. The Republicans need to start trying to increase their part of the Latino vote before their vote becomes more important and they end up losing because they couldn't get their important vote.
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/09/28/hispanic.vote/
http://www.alternet.org/story/65195/
Responding to Molly
I agree with you that most of the Latino votes will go to the democrats. I think that you used great information to support your opinion. I also believe that the democrats are doing a good job working towards getting the Latino vote. All your points and information are well researched and very prominent to this topic way to go!
I think that Latino voters are more likely to vote democratic in the upcoming election. The reason i think that is because typically people vote on what somebody (or group) has done for them in the past. I think that a Latino voter would remember at the polls how social programs created by the democrats benefitted them.
I think that in order for the Democrats to attract the Latino vote they need to focus on issues that are typical of their agenda such as fighting for decent wages.
If the Republicans wish to gain more of the Latino vote they should try to down play or not talk as much about immigration because that issue has proved to affect many Latinos today.
sorry it was late. stupid technology
The growing Latino community in the United States will have an important effect on this year’s election outcome. According to Vanessa Cardenas of the Washington Post, the candidates of both sides are not doing enough to attract these Latino voters, instead ignoring them. Because of the change in primary schedule which puts many Latino-concentrated states in the beginning, Cardenas argues that Latinos have a chance for even more influence than ever before. (1)
The Democrats should emphasize a softer approach to illegal immigration. As harsh “retrictionist” politicians make even legal residents of the U.S. feel targeted (1), a candidate that would promote amnesty and not criminalize illegal immigrants would gain support of Latinos. Unfortunately, the Democratic debates this year didn’t impress the Diaz family of Las Vegas, more beating around the bush rather than providing a clear plan of action (2).
In the 2004 election, President Bush won about 40 percent of the Latino vote. He did this by stressing “family values, hard work and the American dream.” Republicans should use this strategy again in the 2008 election due to it’s success in 2004. (1) The Republicans could use their religiousness as a common bond with Latinos, many of whom are devout Catholics.
I think that a majority of Latino voters will vote Democrat in this election because they will favor social programs for which this party advocates. Even though the Democrats do not have a good plan for illegal immigration, the Republicans seem to “criminalize” illegal immigrants, as seen in Rep. Jim Sesenbrenner’s proposed bill (1). I think that Latino will unite on this issue more than on their religiousness.
(1) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/12/AR2007101201425.html?sub=AR
(2) http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/10/AR2007091002407.html
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